700 

FXUS65 KFGZ 280957

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

257 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather continues for this weekend. 

Next week will feature cooler temperatures and increased southwest 

winds, but mostly dry weather is expected at this time.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will be in control of our

weather this weekend, with afternoon high temperatures running

15-20 degrees above average for this time of year. Several daily

record highs are likely to be broken today and Sunday. Southwest

winds of 10-15 mph are forecast today, but will start to increase

by Sunday as low pressure approaches the California coast and

tightens pressure gradients. By Monday, this low will move 

eastward across Nevada into Utah, further increasing southwesterly

winds and cooling temperatures by around 5 degrees. Wind speeds 

of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-45 mph are in our latest forecasts for 

Monday afternoon. On its current forecast track, the low should 

remain too far north to result in shower activity in northern 

Arizona and PoPs are less than 10%.



Tuesday and Wednesday - our area will be between systems, with

lighter winds and high temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. 

A deeper trough is shown in much of the ensemble data Thursday and

Friday over our region, though there is the usual spread in the

solutions being in the 6-7 day forecast period. For now, forecasts

will indicate temperatures cooling to near normal with a 10-30% 

chance of precipitation. More details will be available over the

next few days so stay tuned.



&&



.AVIATION...Saturday 28/06Z through Sunday 01/06Z...VFR conditions

expected. Mostly light and variable winds forecast overnight, but

a few localized locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim and 

Bradshaw Mountains could see NE winds 5-15 kts. West through north

winds 5-15 kts return after 19Z.



OUTLOOK...Sunday 01/06Z through Tuesday 03/06Z...VFR conditions

forecast through the period. Look for W-SW winds 10-20 kts on

Sunday, increasing and shifting more SW on Monday at 15-25 kts.

Mostly light and variable winds overnight Saturday into Sunday,

but slightly elevated SW winds possible Sunday night into Monday

morning.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Warm and dry conditions. Winds 

southwest to west at 5-15 mph on Saturday, becoming southwest at 10-

20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% 

on Saturday decreasing to 10-20% on Sunday. 



Monday through Wednesday..Mainly dry conditions with a cooling 

trend. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Monday, 

then diminishing to northwest at 5-15 mph on Tuesday, turning 

southwest at 5-15 mph on Wednesday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff