596 FXUS65 KFGZ 310835 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 135 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures are expected today with chances for rain showers returning by this evening and continuing through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected for today with lighter winds than the past couple of days. A ridge continues to amplify across the region today which will turn the winds more southerly and allow for warmer air to filter into the region, along with increasing moisture. A low over the eastern pacific will start to nudge eastward this afternoon and into tonight. The low/trough will track into central California, keeping the best dynamics well to our north. The ridge will push to the east as the trough makes it way inland and this will deepen the southwesterly flow and allow for good moisture advection. Showers will develop and push into the area from the southwest to northeast from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. There has been a shift in the models to delay the onset of precipitation versus what previous runs have had the past couple of days so while we will see a good deal of increase in cloud cover, it may take a bit longer for the atmosphere to moisten up enough for showers to fall. QPF amounts still vary widely from model to model but an average around 0.25-0.65" is common. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially in areas where upsloping may occur. Area to the north and east of the Mogollon Rim will receive lighter amounts, generally around 0.10-0.30". Showers will continue through New Year's Day, ending on Friday. A marginalia amount instability is present as the back end of the system crosses the region, so do not be too surprised if you encounter a ruble or two of thunder Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Keep in mind that there will likely be showers around when the pinecone/boot/car/deuce/ball drops at midnight so be prepared if going out for one of the regions celebrations. If you are worried about snow, I think we can ease your mind a bit. Snow levels are high for this event, starting off around 10000+ feet. Snow levels eventually start to drop down to around 8500-9500 feet, but not until late Thursday or early Friday and by this time the shower activity will be ending across the region. Temperatures at the surface will just be too warm to support snow or snow accumulations expect across the highest peaks. Once the trough lifts out on Friday, we should see a little bit of ridging occur but since we won't dry out super fast, there may be some lingering isolated showers on Friday. Another Pacific trough will be just off the California coast over the weekend, keeping unsettled weather around into next week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 31/06Z through Thursday 01/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Areas CIGS BKN-OVC 5-10kft AGL and embedded -SHRA moving from south to north late in the period. Any showers likely remaining west of the I-17 corridor. Sfc winds mainly light and variable through the remainder of the period. The exception being locally gusty NE winds 10-20kts along and just SW of higher terrain for tonight, including terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Thursday 01/06Z through Saturday 03/06Z...Expect areas of -SHRA/SHRA spreading SW to NE through the period. Precipitation will produce occasional MVFR/IFR conditions, especially over the higher terrain. Marginal improvement by Friday. Sfc winds generally light and then increasing to SW10-15kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Things start off dry today, but by late this afternoon clouds and showers start moving in from the southwest. Showers become more numerous and widespread Wednesday night and last most of the day Thursday. This will predominately be a rain event as the warm nature of this system keep snow levels very high, over 10,000 feet to start, but lowering towards 8,500-9,000 feet by Friday morning. Winds light and variable today at 5-10 mph, becoming S-SW 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph on Thursday. Friday through Sunday...Showers to start Friday morning, becoming more isolated by the afternoon. Snow level lowering between 8,000- 9,000 feet. Dry conditions expected on Saturday, while a chance of rain and high elevation snow showers returns to areas generally west of the Interstate 17 corridor Sunday. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph Friday, S- SW 5-10 mph Saturday, SW 5-15 mph Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff