968 FXUS65 KFGZ 310523 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1023 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy northeast winds will continue through the evening. Chances for rain showers arrive Wednesday evening and continue through Friday morning, with snow levels sticking above 8000-10000 ft. && .DISCUSSION...Expect the rest of today to remain dry with breezy northeast winds. The pressure gradient within the boundary layer remains tight but is weakening, and thus northeast winds will decrease in magnitude through the evening. Temperatures are noticeably warmer for most of Northern AZ, the exception being valleys north of the Mogollon Rim where low-level inversions and light northeast flow have inhibited warming. But the main story this week is the arrival of showers Wednesday evening through Friday. A low pressure system is currently spinning off the coast of Baja California, with a large ridge in place over the Southwest. By tomorrow, the trough begins to push inland while the ridge amplifies and moves eastward. This setup will advect impressive moisture into northern AZ for this time of year, and showers will spread from southwest to northeast tomorrow evening. Large scale forcing for ascent is small, but nonzero as the trough approaches. There is still plenty of uncertainty in QPF amounts, but the current forecast calls for 0.3-0.6'' along and west of the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab through Friday morning. Locally 1+'' is possible in favored upslope regions. On the other side of the Rim accumulations will be lighter, around 0.1-0.3''. What's more certain that this event will stay too warm for snow for all but the highest elevation features. Snow levels are forecast to sit at 10000-11000 ft initially, then gradually drop to 8000-9000 ft by Friday morning. But by that point, shower activity will be decaying with shallow cloud layers that are too warm for ice crystals. After the disturbance passes, things will quickly dry out by Friday afternoon. Thereafter we remain in an unsettled pattern with troughing in the eastern Pacific, and a low chance for showers will continue this weekend into the start of next week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 31/06Z through Thursday 01/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Areas CIGS BKN-OVC 5-10kft AGL and embedded -SHRA moving from south to north late in the period. Any showers likely remaining west of the I-17 corridor. Sfc winds mainly light and variable through the remainder of the period. The exception being locally gusty NE winds 10-20kts along and just SW of higher terrain for tonight, including terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Thursday 01/06Z through Saturday 03/06Z...Expect areas of -SHRA/SHRA spreading SW to NE through the period. Precipitation will produce occasional MVFR/IFR conditions, especially over the higher terrain. Marginal improvement by Friday. Sfc winds generally light and then increasing to SW10-15kts on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning with increasing chances for rain showers Wednesday afternoon. Showers becoming likely Wednesday night, first across Yavapai/Coconino Counties then spreading across all of northern Arizona by Thursday morning. Winds mainly light and variable at 5-10 mph on Wednesday, becoming south to southwest at 5- 15 mph gusting to 20 mph on Thursday. Snow levels ranging from 8,000- 10,000 feet through the event. Friday through Sunday...Expect diminishing chances for rain showers through the day Friday with mainly dry conditions forecast for the weekend. Winds south to southwest at 5-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff