317 

FXUS65 KFGZ 301058

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

358 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and breezy northeast winds will 

continue through today. Temperatures warm through mid-week with 

chances for showers returning for the start of the New Year.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected 

for today with breezy northeast winds hanging around through this 

evening. While the mid-level gradients have started to weaken, the 

gradient in the lower levels continues to remain tight, especially 

across the Mogollon RIm and into Yavapai County. Expect winds to 

remain breezy through today, though they should start to taper off 

as we head into the evening hours. The winds then become lighter 

through the rest of the week. 



Expect temperatures to warm through Wednesday as a ridge starts to 

build into the region, especially for areas along and south of the 

Mogollon Rim. Areas to the north of the Rim will likely remain 

cooler due to a slackening northeasterly flow and strong inversions, 

but by Wednesday a more southerly flow will win out and allow for 

better warming to occur across the entire forecast area. 



The ridge on Wednesday starts to amplify as it shifts to the east 

and a trough/low develops over the eastern Pacific. Models are 

better aligned on the placement of the trough/low and agree that 

moisture will advect into the region from the southwest over the 

coming days. Cloud cover will increase on Wednesday with increasing 

chances for showers, mainly from Wednesday night through Friday. The 

models remain consistent with it remaining warm across the region, 

resulting in much more rain than snow. Snow levels are high with 

snow expected above 8000 feet and accumulations mainly above 10000 

feet. QPF amounts vary and with little to no forcing available we 

won't see very efficient cells develop. One thing of note is that a 

small amount of instability finds its way into the region Thursday 

into Friday, so there may be a few rumbles of thunder to be had to 

start the New Year. 



It looks like it may end up being a wet, cold New Years Eve so plan 

accordingly if you have any New Years Eve plans.



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/12Z through Wednesday 31/12Z...VFR

conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NE 10-15kts gusts

20-30kts daytime, light and variable most places overnight,

exception is downwind of higher terrain where winds at KSEZ will

be NE 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts.



.OUTLOOK...Wednesday 31/12Z through Friday 02/12Z...VFR conditions

at first, but rain showers are expected to overspread the area

Wednesday as the day progresses. Showers will be numerous and

widespread Thursday into Friday. MVFR conditions will be likely

after 00Z Thursday with the possibility of IFR at KFLG and KGCN 

after 06Z Thursday. Winds S-SW 5-15kts Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry weather will continue 

through Wednesday morning with increasing chances for rain showers 

Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will be NE-E at 5-15 mph 

gusts 20-25 mph on Tuesday, shifting S 5-10 mph on Wednesday 

afternoon. Min RH values in the afternoon 15-25% Tuesday, 20-35% 

Wednesday.



Thursday through Saturday...Look for widespread rainfall from 

Thursday into Friday with a few isolated showers lingering Saturday. 

A wetting rain is likely for most locations. Snow levels ranging 

from 8,000-10,000 feet through the event. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph, gusts 

to 20 mph on Thursday, SW-W 5-10 mph Friday, S-SW 5-10 mph on 

Saturday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff