622 FXUS65 KFGZ 300526 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1026 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Colder temperatures and brisk northeast winds will continue through today. Temperatures warm through mid-week with chances for showers returning for the start of the New Year. && .DISCUSSION...Dry conditions are expected through the start of the week. Gusty northeast breezes this afternoon will remain elevated along/downwind of terrain features as we head into the night, then lighter winds are expected tomorrow. We will see daytime highs steadily increase with building heights through Wednesday, with the exception of valleys north of the Mogollon Rim where inversions and weakening northeast flow will hinder warming. Meanwhile, a weak closed low that ejected from a recent passing disturbance will propagate westward underneath a strong Pacific ridge. This feature will join with another cyclone and linger over the subtropical East Pacific for the next few days. Models are in improving agreement that this will eventually make a northeastward push and propagate through northern AZ as an open wave. The current timing of precipitation with this system is in a window from Wednesday evening-Friday morning. Disagreement still exists on the total amount of QPF that will be seen, hinging on the exact evolution of the low. What is more certain is that snow levels be high again, generally above 8000-10000 ft. With the arrival of precipitation possible as soon as Wednesday evening, make sure to keep the chance of cold rain showers in mind when making any New Years Plans. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 30/06Z through Wednesday 31/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Most areas, daytime sfc winds generally light and from the N-NE5-15kts. Stronger ENE winds from along and just SW of higher terrain, 15-25kts. Stronger ENE winds will continue downwind of higher terrain overnight, including terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 31/06Z through Friday 02/06Z...Expect VFR conditions through 00Z-04Z Thursday. Then, areas -SHRA spreading from SW-NE through the remainder of the period. ENE winds 15-25kts will continue downwind of higher terrain Tuesday night, including terminal KSEZ. Otherwise, sfc winds becoming S-SW5-15kts Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry weather will continue through early this week. Breezy northeast/east winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Monday will decrease to about 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Daytime humidity will drop to between 15-35% each afternoon. Wednesday through Friday...Moisture will increase on Wednesday with another round of rainfall expected from late Wednesday night into Friday. Mostly rain is expected with high snow levels around 8,000 to 9,000 feet. Expect above normal temperatures and light winds around 5-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff