335 FXUS63 KFGF 292355 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms later today. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail are all possible. A few tornadoes could be strong. - Heat Advisory through 8pm this evening for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. - Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of July weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Today and tonight...the to main concern is severe weather from thunderstorms across most of the area with a secondary threat of heat across the southern part of the Red River Valley. Starting with severe storms, damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible this afternoon into the evening. The most concerning aspect is the elevated values of low level helicity in the wrapped up triple point along and north of a surface low pressure system. Storms that form in this environment will have low cloud bases, and plenty of veering winds in the low level that will support a tornadic threat this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado watch was issued around 2pm through 10 pm. There could be multiple rounds of storms, so please make sure you are able to receive any warnings that are issued. Meanwhile, a heat advisory continues this afternoon and this evening. The morning convection did temper temperatures a bit, the humid air mass will still support heat indices near 90 to 95 degrees. Temperatures will cool off this evening, and storm will exit to the north as drier air moves across the region overnight. Tuesday through Sunday...The cooler and drier air will keep highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, with a gradual warm up to the 80s the rest of the week. Thursday and Friday could see a few 90s across the Red River Valley. Meanwhile, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, but thunderstorm chances return for Thursday and the rest of the week as southerly flow advects increased moisture back across the region. Continued with the blended guidance which shows the highest thunderstorm chances Thursday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Main concern for aviation this afternoon and evening remains thunderstorms, which will carry a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. CAMs and other high-res guidance continue to struggle a bit to accurately reflect what is currently happening on radar and to agree on timing going forward...leaned slightly heavier on radar trends and recent HRRR runs for timing. Carrying PROB30 groups everywhere except KDVL where predominant storms are about to push into the terminal from the southwest. Drops to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible near/under thunderstorms as reflected in the PROB30s (and these have been calibrated/nudged based on upstream observations at other airports) along with the above mentioned hazards. Additional AMDs may continue to be necessary based on radar and observation trends. Consensus improves in the guidance with respect to end time with storms expected to exit to the east- northeast between 04-06z this evening depending on the terminal, with VFR conditions then expected and skies largely clearing. Southwest winds are expected to ramp up Tuesday morning and last throughout the day with mostly sunny/clear and dry conditions, with high forecast confidence. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-024- 027>032-040. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ009-017-024- 032. && $$ DISCUSSION...FGF AVIATION...FGF