063 FXUS63 KFGF 290817 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 317 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms early this morning, then additional scattered storms later today. All hazards are possible Monday. - Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. - Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of July weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Storms that developed over central ND have moved into the Devils Lake Basin, with one particularly strong supercell tracking through the area. Currently on a downward swing in strength, but will continue to monitor as it continues to track northeastward, exiting off into Canada during the next few hours. Our far southern counties could see some impacts from a thunderstorm complex coming out of SD, probably after sunrise. After that activity passes through, there could be additional thunderstorm development as low pressure deepens over the Red River Valley tomorrow. UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Thunderstorms have largely failed to materialize across eastern ND this evening though a cluster in central ND may eventually propagate NE into the Devils Lake Basin if they become more surface based in follow the Bunkers Right vector. Otherwise storms should remain west of our area until near sunrise when a cluster/line of thunderstorms will move into our southern forecast area with wind (potentially significant if you trust solutions like the HRRR) and large hail as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...Synopsis... Well established upper trough over the northern High Plains into southern BC/AB is promoting southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest, with an expansive upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern is promoting moderate to very strong instability over portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota, along with moderate to strong available shear to organize thunderstorms should they develop. This will provide ingredients for severe storms to develop tonight and/or Monday. More details on these below. There is potential for heat related impacts Monday afternoon as very high moisture (upper 70s dew points) combine with temperatures into the 80s, perhaps low 90s, in the southern Red River Valley into west-central MN. Later in the week, additional heat-related impacts are possible. This includes the Fourth of July weekend. ...Severe storm potential tonight... Despite favorable instability and shear parameter spacing, there is a general lack of focused ascent to spark and sustain severe storms this afternoon. Thus, general trend in our messaging has been to omit severe risk from this afternoon. During the overnight, focus for ascent may become more prevalent near central ND, perhaps allowing some isolated elevated supercells into northeast ND early tonight. This activity would be capable of hail to the size of golfball before quickly pushing into Canada. Couldn't rule out severe storms moving into southeast ND from SD late tonight / early morning Monday. Should this occur, very large hail in excess of 2 inches may be possible, as well as very gusty winds to 80 mph. This scenario is low in confidence, however. ...Severe storm potential Monday... While there is a deft in features to help force thunderstorms to life today, much better forcing will come tonight and Monday as a surface low pressure deepens within the eastern Dakotas, propagating northward into Canada by Monday afternoon. Additionally, richer low level moisture (comprised of surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will likely overspread portions of eastern ND and northwest into west-central MN. This is also a result of the jet aloft overspreading these regions, increasing overall shear. Latest guidance offers a couple of scenarios that could unfold: 1) Well developed severe storms move out of South Dakota into eastern ND traveling northeast. These storms would be capable of large hail (perhaps very large hail in excess of 2 inches) and gusty winds (perhaps very gusty winds up to 80 mph). These storms start elevated in altitude and nature, becoming more surface based into the afternoon. This would eventually introduce potential for tornadoes among other hazards like large hail and gusty winds. Given the very unstable airmass and strong shear, couldn't rule out strong tornadoes (EF-2+). Thunderstorms begin to exit to the north and east late afternoon into early evening. 2) Overnight thunderstorms within SD diminish before reaching ND, allowing a lull period in the morning. This is before robust thunderstorm development near the surface low that propagates north through our area by early afternoon. This activity will likely reach severe thresholds, potentially significantly severe - especially if storms can remain more discrete and surface based. This would keep large to very large hail and risk for tornadoes at the forefront of hazards, with an attendant isolated damaging wind risk as well. In this scenario, strong tornadoes again can't be ruled out (EF-2+). Again, both scenarios hold the risk for tornadoes (potentially strong). At this time, relatively higher chance for tornadoes exists near and just ahead of the surface low within northeast ND to northwest MN during the afternoon. Uncertainty still exists in overall convective evolution that would dictate storm mode as well as whether or not storms would be more surface based or elevated. More elevated storms would have a hail-forward hazard, whereas surface based storms would allow for all hazards. && .AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 TAFS will quickly get ugly tonight and keeping them accurate for the 24 hr period in 6 lines or less is nearly impossible. Nevertheless widespread thunderstorms will be expected across the region tomorrow from 15z to 00z. the problem is there will be multiple rounds with some sites be affected and others not making predicting timing and location a futile effort at this point. Best recommendation for those planning on flying is not not make decisions more than 8 hours out if you dont have to. Ceilings will drop to MVFR by 06z for all sites most likely and patchy IFR may be present by then as well. LIFR remains possible for DVL and BJI overnight. Winds gusting over to or slightly over 30kts appear likely for KFAR from 20z to 01z on Monday. Thunderstorms will be a primary driver of other aviation hazards (ceilings and wind speed/direction) through the forecast period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...JR/TT DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...TT