034 FXUS63 KFGF 282327 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk of severe storms tonight and Monday. All hazards are possible Monday. - Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. - Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of July weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...Synopsis... Well established upper trough over the northern High Plains into southern BC/AB is promoting southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest, with an expansive upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern is promoting moderate to very strong instability over portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota, along with moderate to strong available shear to organize thunderstorms should they develop. This will provide ingredients for severe storms to develop tonight and/or Monday. More details on these below. There is potential for heat related impacts Monday afternoon as very high moisture (upper 70s dew points) combine with temperatures into the 80s, perhaps low 90s, in the southern Red River Valley into west-central MN. Later in the week, additional heat-related impacts are possible. This includes the Fourth of July weekend. ...Severe storm potential tonight... Despite favorable instability and shear parameter spacing, there is a general lack of focused ascent to spark and sustain severe storms this afternoon. Thus, general trend in our messaging has been to omit severe risk from this afternoon. During the overnight, focus for ascent may become more prevalent near central ND, perhaps allowing some isolated elevated supercells into northeast ND early tonight. This activity would be capable of hail to the size of golfball before quickly pushing into Canada. Couldn't rule out severe storms moving into southeast ND from SD late tonight / early morning Monday. Should this occur, very large hail in excess of 2 inches may be possible, as well as very gusty winds to 80 mph. This scenario is low in confidence, however. ...Severe storm potential Monday... While there is a deft in features to help force thunderstorms to life today, much better forcing will come tonight and Monday as a surface low pressure deepens within the eastern Dakotas, propagating northward into Canada by Monday afternoon. Additionally, richer low level moisture (comprised of surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will likely overspread portions of eastern ND and northwest into west-central MN. This is also a result of the jet aloft overspreading these regions, increasing overall shear. Latest guidance offers a couple of scenarios that could unfold: 1) Well developed severe storms move out of South Dakota into eastern ND traveling northeast. These storms would be capable of large hail (perhaps very large hail in excess of 2 inches) and gusty winds (perhaps very gusty winds up to 80 mph). These storms start elevated in altitude and nature, becoming more surface based into the afternoon. This would eventually introduce potential for tornadoes among other hazards like large hail and gusty winds. Given the very unstable airmass and strong shear, couldn't rule out strong tornadoes (EF-2+). Thunderstorms begin to exit to the north and east late afternoon into early evening. 2) Overnight thunderstorms within SD diminish before reaching ND, allowing a lull period in the morning. This is before robust thunderstorm development near the surface low that propagates north through our area by early afternoon. This activity will likely reach severe thresholds, potentially significantly severe - especially if storms can remain more discrete and surface based. This would keep large to very large hail and risk for tornadoes at the forefront of hazards, with an attendant isolated damaging wind risk as well. In this scenario, strong tornadoes again can't be ruled out (EF-2+). Again, both scenarios hold the risk for tornadoes (potentially strong). At this time, relatively higher chance for tornadoes exists near and just ahead of the surface low within northeast ND to northwest MN during the afternoon. Uncertainty still exists in overall convective evolution that would dictate storm mode as well as whether or not storms would be more surface based or elevated. More elevated storms would have a hail-forward hazard, whereas surface based storms would allow for all hazards. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 TAFS will become increasingly messy after 06z as ceilings plunge in MVFR and IFR. LIFR will be possible in KDVL and KBJI but is not a foregone conclusion (timing would be anywhere from 06z to 15z). Winds will be of lesser concern compared to ceilings and eventual thunderstorms on Monday (late morning through afternoon) with currently southeast winds becoming more easterly by 12z and increasing to 10-15kts around 18z with gusts as high as 25-30kts outside of thunderstorms (could gust over 50kts in that instance). Best guess on thunderstorm location is just that, a guess, but KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF look the most certain to see activity with greater uncertainty for KFAR and seemingly a lower threat overall for KBJI all together but wont rule it out. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MNZ002-003-024- 027>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...TT