778 FXUS63 KFGF 301557 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 957 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing drizzle is leading to travel impacts from light icing within the Red River Valley into northwest and west-central Minnesota. This will continue into the early afternoon. - Another clipper moves through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Light snow, as well as blowing snow, are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota, central Red River Valley, and west central Minnesota. There is a 40 percent chance for Advisory conditions heading into the Wednesday morning commute. && .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Evidence of more sustained freezing drizzle leading to light icing has been found within portions of the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. Several webcams within these areas reveal glazed ice accretion (particularly on plow cams within Minnesota). Automated surface observations sites are reporting visibility in the 1-3 mile range, indicating the 'sweet spot' of heavy enough freezing drizzle to deposit light icing. Modeled guidance like the RAP suggests sufficiently deep saturation within supercooled region combined with forcing ahead/nearby of a weak surface low pressure system to move SSE through the morning into early/mid afternoon. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas due to higher confidence in light icing leading to travel impacts. West of the Red River Valley, confidence in impactful freezing drizzle through the early afternoon is less, perhaps staying more intermittent in coverage and/or time. There is a 20% chance impactful freezing drizzle spreads further west into other portions of eastern ND later this afternoon as a back door cold front stalls in this region. Freezing drizzle may also linger into the evening, although this is a low confidence scenario. UPDATE Issued at 808 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Very light freezing drizzle is being reported across portions of eastern North Dakota this morning, with obs showing mainly light snow further east in northwest Minnesota. Updated and increased PoPs to reflect current trends along and west of the Red River Valley. Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...Synopsis... Warm air advection is bringing moisture into the low to mid levels this morning, with light snow and light freezing rain possible through late this morning. Temperatures climb in response to the WAA this morning; however, this surge in temps will be short lived as another clipper and cold front brings another round of snow and breezy north winds into the area tonight into Wednesday morning. A sharp baroclinic zone remains draped across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota through the remainder of this week, with Arctic air to the northeast and a much warmer air mass to the southwest. Shortwaves continue to traverse the flow pattern heading into the New Year. Temperatures across southeast North Dakota will be potentially much warmer than temps in northwest Minnesota through at least Sunday. ...Light Snow and Wintry Mix This Morning... Cold air remains in place at the surface as warm air moves into the region at the 850mb to 700mb levels. Temperature profiles aloft support minimal dendrite growth as the morning progresses, with the likelihood of a wintry mix or light freezing rain developing as sunrise approaches. Much of the moisture, associated with the system, will have fallen by that point, however, thus limiting the impact potential. ...Light Snow and Wind Tonight into Wednesday Morning... A fast moving clipper brings cold air and light snow back into the area tonight into Wednesday morning. At this time, there is a 40 percent chance of Advisory impacts across parts of northeast North Dakota, the Red River Valley, and portions of northwest Minnesota. Snowfall potential looks to be somewhat low, with a 40 percent chance of 2 or more inches of snow. Winds will be a concern, however, as sustained north winds of 15-20 mph are possible, with gusts up to 30 mph. As such, blowing snow will be possible through at least midday Wednesday. The probability for Blizzard conditions looks low at this time; however, visibility reductions remain a concern for areas that receive new snowfall. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 IFR conditions prevail at KBJI this morning, with MVFR at KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF. Light snow will continue to bring occasional IFR visibility and ceilings to KTVF through the next several hours. Partial clearing is expected later this morning, with clouds increasing once more heading into the afternoon and evening. A cold front will bring another chance for snow late tonight into Wednesday morning. LLWS remains in the TAF for KGFK, KFAR, and KDVL through mid morning. Look for a wind shift from south to northwest this morning, with gusts up to 25 knots through early afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Lynch DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch