166 FXUS62 KFFC 300520 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1220 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Chilly, breezy conditions expected through Tuesday. Just above Cold Weather Advisory threshold, but cold, nonetheless. - Dry, gusty conditions Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday will lead to increased fire danger. Exercise caution if planning to burn or if celebrating the New Year with fireworks. - Showers and thunderstorms will likely return Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Morning cold front brought measly rainfall amounts across the state, and has already rushed off to the south and east, leaving blustery, sunny skies in its wake. Despite the sun, the robust northwest flow has already brought a shocking return to winter this afternoon. Winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph (and briefly higher) are producing apparent temperatures in the 30s and 40s over north Georgia in the last few hours. Wind gusts within Wind Advisory criteria have been brief and isolated this afternoon, so no Advisory has been issued at this time. Expect wind chills to drop more significantly overnight as air temperatures lower into the 20s and winds stay breezy. Morning apparent temperatures in the teens are expected, except single digits possible in the higher elevations of the northeast Georgia mountains. At this time, the forecast minimum apparent temperatures are 3-5 degrees from the Cold Weather Advisory criteria, so no headlines have been issued. Forecast and conditions will continue to be monitored through the overnight period. Dry, breezy conditions have already dropped relative humidity values into the 20s this afternoon, and the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions increases Tuesday as fuel moisture drops into critical levels. The combination of breezy conditions and the low relative humidity could require the heightened Red Flag headline to be issued overnight rather than just a Fire Danger Statement. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Wednesday and Thursday: Hazardous fire weather conditions will be the main forecast concern on Wednesday, as the very dry airmass mentioned in the short term discussion will remain over the County Warning Area (CWA). While winds are forecast to pivot from northwesterly to westerly (and thus have less of a dry, truly continental origin) still expecting the dry airmass and little to no cloud cover to result in relative humidity bottoming out between 20% to 30% between late morning and mid-afternoon. Have gone with the 25th percentile of the National Blend of Models (NBM) for dew points on Wednesday, given the propensity of the NBM to underestimate mixing-down of very dry air. For what it's worth, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Fire Weather Outlook across the entire CWA, which conveys a relatively high probability of conditions conducive to fires continuing and/or spreading once started. The dry air will loosen its grip on Thursday as return flow nudges dew points up. Similarly, temperatures will climb into the mid-50s to lower 60s in the afternoon (compared to the upper 40s to mid-50s on Wednesday). Friday through Sunday: A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Southeast over the course of Friday and Saturday, bringing with it a surge of Gulf moisture. Differences remain amongst the ensemble guidance regarding the moisture time-of-arrival and peak moisture timing across the CWA with this disturbance and its associated surface low pressure. The forecast is essentially unchanged from the overnight issuance, with the expectation that showers will begin by Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday afternoon. It continues to look like instability will be unimpressive, and kinematics look to be subpar, as the weak surface low and lack of strong dynamics aloft will struggle to support/organize deep convection. Forecast rainfall totals are still generally 0.5 inch to 1 inch, which makes sense given the progged synoptic setup (large-scale ascent, but lack of strong mesoscale forcing). Sunday is shaping up to be dry and mild. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Winds will be remain gusty from the NW at 10-15 kts with gusts over 20-25 kts before slackening to 5-10 kts after 00Z Wednesday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 28 52 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 28 51 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 20 46 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 22 50 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 27 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 28 50 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 27 55 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 26 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 25 52 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 29 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from noon EST today through this evening for GAZ006>009-013>016-020>025-027-031>039-043>051-053>062-070>076- 084. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...RW