982 FXUS64 KEWX 291723 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Dry, hot, and breezy with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph this afternoon. - Dry and hot conditions will persist through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 South-Central Texas remains sandwiched between broadly lower pressures over the Rockies and surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf, so breezy southerly flow will continue today with the 15-20 mph winds and 20-30 mph gusts in the daytime that we've grown accustomed to the past few days. ALPW imagery indicate that drier lower-tropospheric air is on track to spread over the area today. This should allow surface air to mix out a little more, exchanging lower dew points for slightly higher dry-bulb temperatures. Thus, forecast highs today are expected to be a slight step up from Sunday, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s for most of the area. However, the lowered moisture will also bring heat indices down by a few degrees for most areas. Over West Texas, a dry line invigorated by a few passerby disturbances aloft is forecast to generate at least a few thunderstorms. Westerly shear vectors suggest a shower or storm could briefly wade into western Val Verde County late in the evening, but will likely fizzle quickly upon encountering stabler air aloft. GOES dust-enhancement imagery has done a fair job picking up on a more concentrated swath of lofted dust in the western Gulf accompanying a plume of the Saharan Air Layer, which is beginning to move into South-Central Texas and should traverse our region today before the bulk of the dust disperses farther north by Tuesday. Expect milky white skies and potential for a vividly tinged sunset/sunrise. The bulk of this dust is concentrated at around 800mb (about 5-6 kft altitude), though some hazier conditions are possible in the afternoon as this dust mixes down closer to the surface. Some moisture will start cycling back from the northern Gulf towards our area on Tuesday, though we don't expect to see much change in the overall weather here with the variations in temperature and dew point balancing out to provide peak heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The added moisture may bring a few isolated showers Tuesday afternoon in the Coastal Plains, but their vertical development and strength will be stunted by the ridging aloft. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Little variation in the weather is expected during the week. Two lobes of connected ridging over the Mid-Atlantic and over the eastern Pacific in the upper troposphere will prevent deep-layer moisture from entering our area. A gradual upwards trend in temperatures from midweek into the weekend is noted in ensembles as the airmass steadily warms up in the summer sun. Daily highs for the week in the mid 90s to upper 90s are forecast with moderate chances each day of locations near the Rio Grande topping 100. Peak heat indices should continue to reach the 100-105 range mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor and over the Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows are expected to stay parked in the 70s, with near-average values for the Texas summer. A declining trend in daytime windspeeds is expected starting around Tuesday through the end of the week as low pressures over the southwestern US lift farther north. Breezes should continue to ebb and flow diurnally, but the afternoon gusts will more likely be in the 10-20 mph range than the 20-30 mph range. Rain chances could be hard to come by this week with the persistent ridging aloft, with little opportunity other than a low chance that a shower or two reaches the Coastal Plains during the late-afternoon with the aid of the seabreeze, or that a storm could briefly reach western Val Verde County in the evenings. Ensembles suggest that there could be enough of a break in the ridging around Sunday/early next week for a trough over the central US to slip through with more room for rain, but at this time those chances look low with the most models showing the dominant ridging having the upper hand. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across South Central Texas through the afternoon and evening under mostly clear skies. Stratus, producing MVFR ceilings, is forecast to develop 06Z-11Z between SAT-AUS and north into the Hill Country, then expand into the Rio Grande 11Z-13Z. The stratus is forecast to mix out to VFR conditions 14Z-16Z. A Saharan dust plume has arrived into the region, with the higher concentrations suspended aloft. Nevertheless, there could be come locations seeing visibilities around 6SM as winds relax later tonight. The S to SE winds will continue to gust between 20-30KT this afternoon and evening, then weaken overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...76