396 FXUS64 KEWX 282344 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 544 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures continue through the next seven days. - Patchy to areas of fog possible across portions of the region during the next few mornings. - Low to medium chances (up to 60%) for rain and storms mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A pattern of northwest flow aloft and southerly flow at low-levels continues this weekend, maintaining the pattern of unseasonably warm days and mild nights as we enter March. Dew points tonight are expected to rise as more Gulf moisture fluxes into the area, so lows are forecast to be more mild. Another round of morning fog is possible for mainly the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country with mist possible along the Balcones Escarpment, though modeled humidity profiles and slightly faster winds suggest slightly less favorability for fog compared to this morning. The added moisture should help take a few degrees off the highs for Sunday, but it'll still be a mostly sunny and warm day with highs in the 80s. A stronger low-level jet and a tighter pressure gradient courtesy of thermal low development over North Texas on Sunday will generate a steady southerly breeze with a few gusts up to the 25-30 mph range possible during the late afternoon. Rinse and repeat weather continues Sunday night with mild conditions and cloudiness continuing. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 The dry weather experienced across South-Central Texas over the past week was in large part due to a stationary ridge that has remained near Baja California since last Monday. There is good model agreement that the ridge will start to move east across Mexico and into the Gulf early next week, allowing winds aloft to gain a more westerly to southwesterly aspect more favorable to deeper moisture advection into our area. The low-level thermal ridge keeping our area warm likely won't budge much during the week, so confidence is high that unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the week. Breezy southerly winds should also continue each day, along with nocturnal gustiness on ridgetops. During the first half of the week, a trough will track across the Intermountain West and move into the Central Plains by about midweek. This is depicted across all model guidance, though the GFS/GEFS tend to project a faster and less impactful trough for our area than the majority of the models. The enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this disturbance should force an upward trend in temperatures Monday/Tuesday, but eventually a weak front associated with it may sag close to our area around Wednesday/Thursday. Modest forcing, shear, and weak to moderate instability should allow for some showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms around midweek. However, specifics on convective mode and shower coverage are still unclear given uncertainties with the front and trough positioning. Towards the end of the week, troughing over the western US is expected to deepen in response to ridge amplification over the northeastern Pacific. Broad mid- to upper-level height falls across the Southern Plains supports another favorable window of opportunity for rain opening next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR CIGs are now observed at all TAF sites at this time, expect this trend to continue until overnight when a large cloud deck should overspread the area from the coastal plains making its way northwest. As this happens expect CIGs to drop pretty quickly with MVFR and possibly even IFR CIGs possible into the early morning hours. Additionally, there could be fog with reduced visibilities at all TAF sites. Have added TEMPOs at all sites to account for this. Winds should remain light and southerly in the 5 to 10kt range overnight. Later in the TAF period winds should increase once the cloud deck erodes by early afternoon. As VFR CIGs return and mixing commences we could see gusts as high as 25 knots at all sites. For KDRT expect southerly winds to remain elevated in the 10 to 15kt range all night and increase by tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 60 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 83 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 58 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 59 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 83 62 84 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...CJM