439 FXUS64 KEWX 301748 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures likely (60 to 90% chance) tonight for mainly low-lying areas east of US-83. - Cool and dry with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s around midnight for New Year's. - Warmer temperatures to start 2026 with dry weather continuing. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Clear skies are spreading across our region as the dry wake of an upper-level trough moves over the area. Calm winds tonight under surface high pressure combined with this dryness will allow temperatures to cool more substantially tonight than previous nights. Lows early Thursday morning are projected to fall into the 30s regionwide. Freezes are anticipated especially for low-lying areas as the coolest air oozes into river valleys and low-lying plains, with better chances generally east of US-83. The likelihood of a freeze from the latest NBM ranges from 60% to near 90% for these favored spots. A few patchy areas may briefly dip into the upper 20s just before sunrise. A light but warmer southerly wind starts to return for New Year's Eve as the cold airmass begins to vacate the area. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are forecast during the day under sunny skies. When the clock hits midnight and 2026 arrives, temperatures are forecast to be cool in the mid 40s to low 50s, decreasing into the upper 30s to low 40s by sunrise on New Year's Day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 By late week, an upper-level ridge becomes established over the Central US, and this ridging is represented in all ensemble clusters through at least the weekend. This will usher in a return of unseasonably warm temperatures, with the chance of above- average temperatures exceeding 80 percent. Highs New Year's Day are forecast to be in the 70s. Warm southwest flow may be enhanced Friday as a weak shortwave within the broader ridging passes to our north, resulting in forecast highs in the low to mid 80s regionwide. This is in daily record high territory for Austin and San Antonio, with the latest probabilistic national blend showing 60 to 90 percent probabilities for daily records being set for those sites on Friday. A weak front associated with the aforementioned low-pressure system Friday night into Saturday may lower temperatures somewhat, but otherwise zonal flow and persistent ridging continuing aloft should support mostly steady temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for most. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR flight conditions will persist through the TAF period. A mid- level cloud layer with decks around 7000 to 9000 feet this morning continues to erode from the north-northeast to south-southwest across South-Central Texas. Otherwise, expect mostly to completely clear skies throughout the period with only a few high wispy high level clouds at times. The winds remain light featuring speeds generally of around 7 kt or less. Directions at times will become variable but the overall trend is for directions to shift from out of the north to the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 35 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 29 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 31 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 32 67 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 37 68 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 31 68 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 31 67 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 29 69 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 30 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 34 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 34 68 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ204- 219>222. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62