215 FXUS64 KEPZ 291750 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Near Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico today and Tuesday. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with very dry air will increase risk of wildfires. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of El Paso this evening. Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the week. - Temperatures will be typical of early July, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Upper low over the Northern Rockies shows a jet streak ejecting over the Dakotas, which was our wind-maker last weekend. A secondary wave currently over the Sierra Madres in CA will cross the Four Corners on Tuesday. Strong high pressure has begun to develop over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, which will be the prevailing weather pattern through at least this Friday. Overall, breezy southwest flow will continue across Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas next few days, keeping much of SW NM dry. Lee surface low formation will be over central CO today and Tuesday, with a surface trough extending south across the western half of NM. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph can be expected, with a few gusts up to 35 mph each afternoon. This has caused a drying trend for Southwest New Mexico, with no rain chances through the week ahead. More favorable moisture exists further east across West Texas and the Eastern New Mexico Plains, due to southerly flow aloft pulling a plume of moisture up out of northern Mexico. Precipitable water values 1.0-1.2" and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s/lower 50s will be enough for some isolated (20-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Locally, this will affect areas southeast of El Paso only such as Hudspeth County. Sacramento Mountains in Otero County could also see a few showers late this week. Storms are not expected be severe, but could produce gusty winds and blowing dust. Afternoon temperatures will be typical of late June, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Overall, looks like a warm and dry week for the majority of the forecast area, with moisture limited just too far east. Decent chance El Paso and Las Cruces stay dry through the Independence Day holiday, with temperatures warming back toward the 100-104 range again by the latter half of this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Skies FEW-SCT120 this evening with isolated TSRA SE of KELP. TS outflows may cause sudden wind shifts and gusts up to 30 knots tonight, but no direct TS impacts are expected. Surface winds 230-260 at 10 to 15 knots today, with gusts to 25 knots across SW NM. Winds continue out of the S/SW overnight 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Critical fire weather conditions for Gila National Forest on Tuesday with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 12 to 18% causing a few hours of Red Flag criteria. Fuel moisture is currently at climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New Mexico has ERCs at the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be possible next few days, evident with the Sacaton Fire being visible on satellite. Near Critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest New Mexico through the rest of the week, with little to no rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Wednesday/Thursday, though further drying this week will lead to single-digit RH across Gila NF. More favorable moisture will exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Lincoln National Forest Thursday into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 66 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 20 Las Cruces 69 94 67 95 / 0 10 10 0 Alamogordo 70 95 68 96 / 0 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 53 72 51 73 / 0 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 69 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 62 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 69 95 66 95 / 10 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 72 96 70 97 / 30 30 40 10 Loma Linda 68 88 66 90 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 72 97 70 98 / 20 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 72 94 70 95 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 76 95 73 96 / 0 10 10 0 Jornada Range 69 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 70 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 93 67 94 / 10 10 20 0 Mayhill 58 83 55 84 / 0 30 10 10 Mescalero 56 83 54 84 / 0 20 10 10 Timberon 53 80 51 81 / 10 20 20 10 Winston 58 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 94 63 95 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 63 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 88 61 89 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt