522 FXUS64 KEPZ 310014 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 514 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 453 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Warmer weather returns for New Year's Eve, with light rain showers overnight into New Year's Day across southwest New Mexico. Breezy west winds Thursday and Friday. - Dry and warm weather expected Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 Temperature recovery from yesterday's cold front and winter weather begins today as high pressure aloft develops across the southern Rockies and Great Basin. Lowland highs will warm up to the mid-50s, right around normal for late December. Low clouds along the International Border will erode over the next few hours, leaving us partly cloudy with high cirrus through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Quiet weather overnight with lows just below freezing across most of the southern New Mexico deserts. New Year's Eve will be even warmer, pushing lowland highs back to the lower-to-mid 60s. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day as the ridge axis passes. Pacific low will move ashore southern California on New Year's Day, with strong southwest flow aloft ahead of the system bringing our next chance of precipitation. Best chances (40-60%) will be Thursday morning west of the Rio Grande across southwest New Mexico. This will be almost entirely light rain, even for the high elevations. Forecast has trended drier in recent runs, with both global models depicting an open wave by the time the system reaches us. Friday into the first weekend of 2026 looks dry and warm as a broad ridge sits over the southwestern US. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal once again (lowland highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees). Longwave trough across the Pacific coast next week, with steady southwest flow over our region. This will give us another window of precipitation chances, possibly midweek, dependent on where the Pacific moisture plume is positioned. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions with light/variable winds will prevail overnight, with SCT-BKN250. Winds will attempt to shift to the south and southwest by Wednesday afternoon, but will be variable to calm through at least midday. Some mid-level clouds will begin moving in from the west after 20-22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1000 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 Low fire danger today under light northeast winds and Poor ventilation. Min RH 15-25%. Shallow snowpack across southern Lincoln National Forest. Dry weather again on Wednesday as temperatures quickly rebound back to above normal. Winds shift back to the west by Wednesday afternoon 10 to 15 mph. Isolated light rain showers over Gila National Forest Thursday morning. Winds becoming breezy out of the west Thursday/Friday 15 to 25 mph. Those two afternoons will be the best ventilation (Good to Very Good) of the forecast period. Next weekend will be dry and warm for all local fire zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 37 65 48 70 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 35 63 45 66 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 32 60 43 67 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 26 61 39 66 / 0 0 20 20 Cloudcroft 28 47 35 44 / 0 0 20 20 Truth or Consequences 32 61 44 67 / 0 0 40 20 Silver City 35 62 44 58 / 0 10 50 40 Deming 34 64 45 69 / 0 10 30 30 Lordsburg 34 62 43 65 / 0 10 50 40 West El Paso Metro 39 63 49 69 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 25 62 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 35 68 45 72 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 37 57 45 62 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 34 65 45 71 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 34 62 44 68 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 37 62 48 69 / 0 0 20 30 Jornada Range 26 61 40 68 / 0 0 20 30 Hatch 29 65 41 71 / 0 0 30 20 Columbus 35 63 47 70 / 0 10 40 30 Orogrande 31 59 41 67 / 0 0 20 20 Mayhill 29 65 41 59 / 0 0 10 20 Mescalero 26 59 35 57 / 0 0 20 20 Timberon 26 56 35 54 / 0 0 10 20 Winston 26 62 37 61 / 0 0 40 20 Hillsboro 34 64 44 67 / 0 0 40 30 Spaceport 25 61 38 68 / 0 0 30 20 Lake Roberts 32 62 40 57 / 0 10 60 50 Hurley 33 62 43 62 / 0 10 40 30 Cliff 31 66 43 64 / 0 10 60 50 Mule Creek 32 62 43 60 / 0 10 60 70 Faywood 36 62 46 62 / 0 0 50 40 Animas 33 65 45 67 / 0 10 60 40 Hachita 31 63 43 67 / 0 10 40 20 Antelope Wells 33 66 46 67 / 0 10 50 40 Cloverdale 39 62 48 61 / 0 20 60 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman