083 FXUS64 KEPZ 301157 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 457 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 437 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Cool temperatures will linger on Tuesday, followed by a rapid warm up as we head into the New Year. - Scattered rain showers will move into Southwestern New Mexico Wednesday Night, which is New Year's Eve. Precip will mostly dry out as it approaches the Rio Grande. - Breezy west winds will follow this system, and precip over Arizona will tease the New Mexico border through late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1024 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025 Low clouds have developed over a good portion of the Tularosa Basin, and will try to expand southward on light northerly low level winds overnight. HRRR tries to bring in some lower clouds into east El Paso, but it'll be a hard fight. Either way, expect some areas of fog along the west slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, and additional clouds will likely cap the Organ Mountains towards dawn, with fog possible on San Augustin pass early Tuesday morning. Temperatures will stay stuck in the mid-50s across the lowlands, which actually is only a degree or two below normal. But, as a sharp ridge axis shifts just east of the area, we'll see a rapid warm-up into the mid-60s Wednesday (NYE), and around 70 to start 2026. Despite the brief cool-down, we're still projected to set the warmest December on record in El Paso, both for average daily highs and average mean temperatures. As troughing develops off the west coast again, a leading shortwave trough will top the ridge late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing light rain showers into the Gila Region and Southwest New Mexico on New Year's Eve. As the ridge breaks down, weakening impulses will keep scattered showers over Arizona, and these will occasionally tease far SW New Mexico through Friday morning. Otherwise, breezy west winds will be noticeable on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures look to hover around 70 in the lowlands through early next week, a sold 10 to 12 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 The upper level storm system that brought us wind, clouds and rain has moved off and we are moving back into a quieter weather pattern, at least for a day or two. For today and tonight we will have generally light winds from the north or northeast today and light and variable winds tonight. For clouds, we currently have some low ceilings in the Tularosa Basin near KALM and KHMN. Some models indicated that those low ceilings, might try to build down toward KELP. For now I will leave the mention of low ceilings out of KELP TAF as the clouds in the Tularosa Basin do not seem to be moving south and once the sun gets up it will be much harder to get those lower ceilings to set up. Having said that, I will continue to monitor the clouds and if they appear to begin moving south, I will update KELP's TAF as needed. For the rest of today and into tonight, we will have unlimited ceilings, some high clouds look to lurk just to our west tonight, but right now they don't appear like they will move into our area before this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 437 AM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 After the active weather yesterday, we will see quieter weather for the next couple of days. Min RH's today will be above 30% across the region, but we will be a little drier on Wednesday with min RH's in the 20's east of the Rio Grande and in the 30's west of the river. The winds for today and Wednesday will be light. Then on Thursday a weak upper level storm system will bring a chance for rain to the Gila region and jump our min RH's across the area to above 30%. We will see breezy and gusty winds winds Thursday afternoon. We will still have breezy winds on Friday with min RH's continuing above 30% for the area. For the weekend, we will see lower winds speeds and a slow drying trend, but min RH's will stay above 20% both Saturday and Sunday across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 33 64 47 71 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 34 63 44 66 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 28 61 43 66 / 0 0 30 20 Alamogordo 24 61 39 65 / 0 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 30 48 35 44 / 0 0 20 20 Truth or Consequences 31 61 44 66 / 0 0 30 20 Silver City 34 63 44 58 / 0 0 60 30 Deming 31 65 45 69 / 0 0 50 20 Lordsburg 30 64 44 64 / 0 0 50 30 West El Paso Metro 34 62 49 69 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 23 60 33 67 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 32 68 44 71 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 32 58 45 62 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 28 65 44 71 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 31 62 44 67 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 33 63 47 69 / 0 0 20 30 Jornada Range 22 61 39 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hatch 22 65 41 70 / 0 0 30 20 Columbus 31 63 48 70 / 0 0 40 20 Orogrande 31 60 41 66 / 0 0 10 20 Mayhill 29 64 39 59 / 0 0 10 20 Mescalero 27 59 35 56 / 0 0 20 20 Timberon 25 57 34 54 / 0 0 10 20 Winston 24 62 36 61 / 0 0 30 20 Hillsboro 34 63 44 66 / 0 0 40 20 Spaceport 27 61 37 67 / 0 0 30 30 Lake Roberts 22 63 40 57 / 0 0 70 40 Hurley 31 63 43 62 / 0 0 60 20 Cliff 24 67 42 64 / 0 0 70 40 Mule Creek 26 64 42 59 / 0 0 70 40 Faywood 34 62 46 62 / 0 0 60 20 Animas 32 66 47 67 / 0 0 50 30 Hachita 32 64 44 66 / 0 0 40 20 Antelope Wells 29 67 47 68 / 0 0 40 20 Cloverdale 35 63 48 61 / 0 10 50 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice