293 

FXUS63 KEAX 291719

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday evening. Overnight 

  lows in the mid and upper 70s will not provide much relief from 

  daytime heat.



* Most areas will dry out this week with the next widespread

  small chance (20-30%) for rain holding off until Independence

  weekend (Saturday Night/Sunday).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Ridging will continue to build over the eastern CONUS through the 

week. Additionally, deep troughing will move through the Rockies and 

northern Plains today. This will place northwestern Missouri and 

northeastern Kansas between these features. At the surface and low 

levels, the increased pressure gradient and flow will increase 

sustained winds, gusts, temperatures, and dew points. Today, expect 

to see sustained winds around 20mph and gusts 30-35mph. Highs today 

are expected to be in the low and mid 90s. With dew points in the 

upper 70s, this puts heat indices in the 105-110 range. 



These hot and humid conditions will continue through the end of this 

week, and possibly into the weekend. Highs will continue to be in 

the low to mid 90s and some spots in the upper 90s. Heat indices 

will continue in the 100-110 range through the week. Low 

temperatures overnight will not provide much relief from daytime 

heat. Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s through the 

week. These low temperatures are much above the 90th percentile of 

climatology for the region. Given hot daytime temperatures, hot 

overnight temperatures, and the duration of the heat this week, an 

Extreme Heat Warning was issued through Friday evening. This is a 

high confidence forecast, with much deterministic and ensemble 

guidance showing little spread.



Along the periphery of the ridging, vorticity will move northeast. 

This will bring showers and storms through Nebraska. As these storms 

move east, they will encounter subsidence and will dissipate. In far 

northwestern Missouri, there is a small chance for a dissipating 

shower or storm each night. 



Beyond Friday, there is some uncertainty. Ridging may begin to 

broaden and shortwave energy may move over the region. This would 

help to reduce heating over the week and introduce a small chance 

for showers and storms. Though there is still possibilities that 

ridging persists, where heat would continue.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Daytime cumulus has become dense enough to create a broken

ceiling across all sites except northern site KSTJ. South winds

are breezy with gusts of 25-30+ kts. MVFR cloud cover diminishes

after 00z, though winds remain breezy overnight and through 

Tuesday.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-

     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-

     102>105.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wilson

AVIATION...Hagenhoff