329 FXUS63 KEAX 282114 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 314 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeastern KS and northern MO from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for travel impacts due to ice accumulation. - Wintry precipitation is expected areawide Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. All precipitation types are possible. - Very active weather pattern continues throughout the week with periodic chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Current 500-hPa analysis depicts a broad longwave trough over the eastern CONUS ridging over the western CONUS resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the region. At the surface, a stationary boundary is draped across central MO and has been providing enough lift to sustain some scattered showers along and south of US-50. These showers will continue to gradually shift southward through the afternoon, with the entire area becoming dry over the next couple of hours. Outside of the area of showers, mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the mid- to-upper 50s (cooler in far northern MO) with highs expected to be in the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s and lower 30s. By early afternoon tomorrow, WAA will be working into the southwestern portion of the area resulting in isentropic upglide and lift supportive of precipitation. This lift will spread northeastward across the area Sunday afternoon bringing some form of precipitation to the entire area. What form of precipitation falls and in what areas continues to be million dollar question. At this point, temperatures Sunday afternoon look to climb into the mid-to- upper 30s with some areas in the southern portions of the area potentially cracking 40F. Thus, precipitation is expected to begin as rain as it begins to spread northeastward. However, dew points will be in the high teens and low 20s, so as precipitation falls into this dry surface layer, temperatures and dew points will transition towards the wet bulb temperature (in the low 30s across the southern portion of the area). With this temperatures being so close to freezing, rain should transition to snow (or a rain/snow mix) fairly quickly Sunday afternoon. Current thinking is that areas south of US-50 will remain warm enough to see primarily rain. Along and north of US-50, chances for snow are higher, though the exact timing of a transition from rain to rain/snow to snow remains tricky to determine. Moving northward, areas north of US-36 will begin with a primary precipitation type of snow. This regime of rain across the southern portion of the area, a rain/snow mix across the central portion of the area, and snow across the northern portion of the area will continue after sunset through midnight before the best forcing begins to shift off to the east. However, model soundings remain very saturated through the low- levels of the profile with a fairly stout warm nose present below 5k ft through Monday morning. With a limited amount of lift remaining across the area, this profile looks like a classic drizzle sounding and with surface temperatures below freezing along and north of the Missouri River this creates a scenario where ice accumulations look likely. With the timing of ice accumulations looking to be midnight through 9am, there may be impacts to the Monday morning commute. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across northeastern KS and northern MO from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. A lot of uncertainty remains in exactly where the freezing line will set up, so there is potential that the Advisory will need to be expanded southward, but the current Advisory covers the area of highest confidence for impacts. As temperatures warm above freezing Monday morning, concerns will begin to diminish. Areas drizzle look to continue throughout the day into Monday night with a deep saturated layer near the surface and dry air aloft. Without the saturation in the dendritic layer and the lack of ice creation in the atmosphere, favored precipitation type looks to remain drizzle. Fortunately, temperatures look to largely remain above freezing Monday night so once surface temperatures warm above freezing, impacts from precipitation look to lessen. Area of low pressure deepens across the Central Plains Monday night into Tuesday as shortwave trough moves across the intermountain west. Warm front associated with this system lifts north on Tuesday, leading to unseasonably mild conditions building north towards the I- 70 corridor. Further north, weak isentropic lift within the saturated layer remains leading to prolonged light rain and drizzle. This will keep temperatures from warming appreciably throughout the day. Models have increased the progression of this wave across the central US, so we may see a brief break in precipitation on Wednesday ahead of the next wave building into the lower 48. A large piece of mid-upper energy is expected to lift into the Northern Plains late week, while the remaining energy builds south into a cut off low across the southwestern US sending periodic impulses into the region next week into early next week. The very active continues with periodic chances of rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the period. Right now, observing a deck of clouds scattering out, with high cirrus expected at all terminals through the day. Currently observing wind gusts of around 15-20 kts around the region, so have elected to include wind gusts in the current prevailing category to account for increased daytime mixing with greater surface heating potential. However, with winds around 10-15 kts through the period, taking out mentions of gusts by 20z with greater sustained winds during the afternoon. Around 20z, expecting to see winds shift clockwise from the east towards the N/NE, with this direction prevailing through the period. By the evening, expecting winds to hover around 10 kts as gust potential of 15-20 kts continues into Sunday. Mentionable winter weather has shifted later than the current TAF period, so elected to mention lowering ceilings around this time in advance of winter weather. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102. && $$ DISCUSSION...Carothers/BT AVIATION...SPG