790 

FXUS63 KEAX 310822

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

222 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures expected

  the next 7 days with no hazardous weather expected.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



A very tranquil weather pattern is expected to end the year and ring 

in the first week of 2026. Dry conditions with near to above normal 

temperatures are expected through this forecast period. An above 

normal day will finish out 2025 as mid-level height rises and WSW 

surface flow will aid in highs rising into the lower 40s to lower 

50s. Tonight, a upper level trough will dig through the Great Lakes 

region forcing a back door cold front through the area. Modest cold 

air advection behind the front tonight will drop lows back into the 

upper teens to upper 20s. Thursday, northwest flow aloft will relax 

as the upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal. However, weak mixing 

will keep high temperatures near seasonal normal in the low to mid 

30s (north) to the low to mid 40s (south). Quasi-zonal flow aloft 

continues into Friday keeping highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. 

Saturday, upper level ridging over the central Rockies will shift 

eastward into the eastern Rockies providing height rise over the 

local area however, with surface high pressure over the area, weak 

mixing will hold highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sunday the upper 

level ridge will slide east over the region. This couples with 

modest WAA at the surface will drive highs into the mid 40s to mid 

50s. Monday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area 

with continued modest WAA at the surface pushing highs into the 50s 

to lower 60s. Monday night into Tuesday a upper level shortwave will 

move from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will 

force a dry cold frontal passage through the CWA however, highs will 

still remain above normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



MVFR stratus is expected to work south from Iowa overnight

impacting areas generally east of I-29 through the morning hours

on Wednesday. Low level cloudiness will gradually clear from

west to east as southwest winds develop across the region. A

back door cold front is expected Wednesday evening, with the

potential for low end MVFR- IFR ceilings behind the front.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...73

AVIATION...BT