731 FXUS63 KEAX 310526 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1126 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures expected the next 7 days with no hazardous weather expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Mostly clear skies this afternoon with a few passing high clouds. The surface ridge has passed to our south, shifting winds to southwesterly for the afternoon which is bringing in warmer air with temperatures across the area already in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We'll see surface winds shift back to northwesterly tonight as another surface High builds up on the lee-side of the Rockies. This won't bring in significantly cooler air, though, with overnight lows only forecast to fall into the mid 20s. The upper-level pattern shows a strong upper-level ridge over the western CONUS leading to amplified northwesterly flow across the Central Plains. This generally remains in place over the next few days. Going into Wednesday we see a strong jet streak push south out of Canada into the Great Lakes region helping to advance a surface cold front farther south toward our area. While Wednesday will remain mild with highs generally in the 40s to low 50s, the back-door cold front arrives on Thursday bringing daytime highs back down into the low 30s north to near 40 along I-70. Areas farther south see the cold front arrive later, allowing temperatures to warm well into the 40s before the cooler air arrives in the late afternoon/evening. As the cold front moves through, we will also see high clouds spread eastward leading to mostly cloudy skies, but dry air in the low and mid-levels will keep any precipitation from falling. Going into the weekend, we continue to see the western ridge expand eastward leading back to building upper-level heights. We do see a surface low develop over the Southern Plains which slides across Oklahoma into Arkansas Friday into early Saturday, but any precip from this system will stay well to our south. Overall the trend will be for temperatures to gradually warm through the weekend with clearing skies Friday into Saturday. Low pressure developing on the lee side of the Rockies will amplify southerly flow across the Southern and Central plains on Sunday leading to a greater increase in afternoon temperatures warming into the 50s to near 60 across much of the area. This warmer air remains in place through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 MVFR stratus is expected to work south from Iowa overnight impacting areas generally east of I-29 through the morning hours on Wednesday. Low level cloudiness will gradually clear from west to east as southwest winds develop across the region. A back door cold front is expected Wednesday evening, with the potential for low end MVFR- IFR ceilings behind the front. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...BT