416 FXUS63 KEAX 300443 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1043 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds are relaxing this afternoon, though temperatures remain cool with highs in the 20s. - Temperatures rebound going into Tuesday with relatively mild, dry weather expected to continue through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Quiet weather today after a busy Sunday. We're seeing gradually clearing skies with northerly winds relaxing toward the afternoon. Satellite shows the upper-level trough spinning over the Great Lakes region with a ridge built up over the northern Rockies. Amplified meridional flow on the east side of this ridge has continued to stream cool northerly air into the Central Plains with highs today staying in the 20s. Good news for those who dislike this cold, temperatures are forecast to rebound tomorrow as the Canadian High slides south over Texas shifting flow back to southwesterly across the region. This combined with building heights as western ridge expands eastward will help to bring temperatures back up into the mid 30s to mid 40s for highs on Tuesday, warmest across our southwestern counties and cooler over northeast Missouri. This ridge will keep temperatures fairly close to normal through Wednesday. Thursday a strong jet streak pushes south into the Great Lakes region helping to push the cooler air back south into northern portions of Kansas and Missouri. A frontal boundary will drop south to around I-70 before stalling, bringing cooler temperatures along and north and keeping the milder temperatures for our southern counties. This cooler air again won't stick around for long as the trough over the Great Lakes shifts eastward allowing ridging to our west to again expand eastward leading to building heights. This will push the stationary front back north and bring warmer temperature back north on Friday with highs back in the upper 30s to mid 40s along and north of I-70 while areas south approach 50 degrees. Going into the weekend we see the breakdown of the western ridge, deamplifying and expanding eastward. We see a surface low develop over northern Texas and track eastward into Arkansas Friday into Saturday, but precip from this system looks likely to stay well south of our area. This means quiet, dry weather continues. Ensembles have temperatures trending even warmer Sunday and Monday with highs back in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the region with gradually shifting winds through the overnight. Winds settle out of the SE, picking up to around 10kts by late morning/early afternoon. Some high-level cloud cover streams into the area from the N/NW by the afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Curtis