554 FXUS63 KDVN 281107 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 507 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More seasonal temperatures this weekend will trend upwards through the upcoming work week, with 60s not out of question through the second half of the work week. - Active pattern sets up over the area, with near-daily chances for precipitation Tuesday and beyond. Prior, we will see some weak waves pass through, bringing the potential for bouts of light snow. Precipitation will largely fall as rain Tuesday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 211 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Weak upper wave will pass through the area today, which will largely bring cloud cover. Better forcing and moisture will remain north of our area, but there remains some uncertainty on the southerly extent of light precipitation. Thus, will hold onto Slight- Chance PoPs (20-40%) along our north today, generally focused along the Highway 20 corridor. Temperature profiles will be cool enough for the primary precipitation type to remain snow. HREF has trended north of the area with the band of snow, with a couple CAMs still brining snow into our north. Although, most CAMs keep the band of snow north of our area through the day today. If this comes to fruition, most/all of the area will remain dry today. Although, if the north sees snow today, accumulations will be light and less than an inch. Little/no impacts are expected at this time, owing to pavement temperatures and air temperatures near/above freezing. A stalled baroclinic zone remains over the area today, which will create quite the range in temperatures. High temperatures will range from near 30 in our north to low 50s in our south. Otherwise, we will see passing clouds through the day, with light northeasterly winds. Clouds will persist into the overnight hours, but shouldn't be completely overcast. We will also see temperatures decrease into the teens to near 20 in our south, with light northerly winds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 211 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Active weather pattern will remain through the extended, with northwesterly flow through the start of the long term becoming zonal by midweek. The northwest flow pattern will continue to guide weak waves into the area, which will bring the potential for precipitation. The first of these waves is to come through the region on Sunday, with Monday being a transition day ahead of the next weak wave passing through on Tuesday. From there, we will see quite the pattern change over the region, with dominant upper level flow becoming southwesterly. Going into that pattern will lead to a period of well above normal temperatures, which we have been seeing often lately, with moisture also on the rise. This will set the stage for further precipitation chances, largely in the form of rain. Sunday, our first weak shortwave passes through the region, with current trajectory keeping it south of the area. Moisture and forcing will work into the area, but will remain in our south. Although, we continue to see a southerly trend in the track of the surface low, with precipitation coverage decreasing over the area as well. If this trend continues, we may get to the point where we see little/no precipitation. With that said, will hold onto about 30-60% chances for precipitation, with best chances along and south of Highway 34. Temperature profiles would favor the primary precipitation type as snow, with accumulations generally around an inch or less. NBM Probs indicate that there is about a 45-60% chance to see an inch of snow, with <45% chances for 2" or more. Thus, if we see any snow in our south, totals should be low. Also, pavement and ambient temperatures will largely remain above freezing, which should help limit impacts on the roadways. Monday continues to look like a brief transitional period between waves, which should largely keep us dry through the day. Weak LLVL southerly flow will be in place, which will allow temperatures to increase above seasonal norms. Temperatures have actually trended up since the last forecast package, with much of the area in the 40s and some approaching the mid 40s. While this doesn't sound like much compared to our recent warm-ups, this is only the beginning of the overall warm-up this coming week. Tuesday and beyond, we will see upper level flow transition from brief zonal flow to southwesterly. This pattern change will allow for temperatures to increase throughout the area for the remainder of the week, bringing temperatures well above seasonal norms. Currently, we are expecting temperatures to return to the mid-upper 50s, with 60s not out of question through the second half of the week. We will also see a stark increase in moisture, which will allow for near daily chances for precipitation. This can be attributed to the persistent bouts of vorticity ejecting off the Rockies and heading towards the region. Thus, midweek and beyond will be a period of active weather, with several chances for precipitation and thunderstorm chances also increasing. Some of these waves moving in may be stronger too, which will increase the potential for periods of heavier rainfall. While we are advertising well above normal temperatures, the persistent PoPs and cloud cover may result in some challenges with the temperature forecast. Thus, some fluctuations in max temperatures can be expected at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will start the TAF period northerly around 10 KTs, by 15z, we will see northeast winds around 10 KTs. We will have a system pass north of the area today, bringing a low-end chance for light snow in our north. DBQ currently seems to be the only location that may see impacts from the snow, but confidence remains low. Thus, opted to continue with the PROB30 group at this time. After 21Z today, the brush of light snow should be east of our area, with VFR weather in place through tonight. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Ervin