883 FXUS63 KDVN 301927 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 127 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A clipper system will impact the area Wednesday mainly during the afternoon and evening. Snow accumulations look to be an inch or less mainly north of I-80. - A slow warming trend will commence late this weekend and into early next week with temperatures trending above normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 he first clipper system will exit the area this evening but clouds will be slow to break up overnight. Overall accumulations will be one half inch or less. Return flow developing ahead of the next system will help keep temperatures elevated overnight. Dry conditions are expected through the morning commute on Wednesday. Snow from the next clipper system should begin developing by late morning across the northern half of the area and overspread most areas along/north of I-80 during the afternoon. Snowfall amounts look to be under an inch across northwest Illinois with a dusting as far south and west as a Vinton, IA to Aledo, IL line. Given the timing of the snow on Wednesday, some minor impacts are possible during the evening commute for areas along/north of I-80. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Wednesday night Assessment...high (70-80%) confidence on colder than normal temperatures Lingering light snow from the Wednesday clipper system will end in the early evening followed by slowly clearing skies. The clearing skies and fresh snow for the areas that see it will allow temperatures to drop to colder than normal by sunrise Thursday. Thursday through Tuesday Assessment...low to medium (30-50%) confidence on mainly dry conditions. Medium to high (60-80%) confidence on a warming trend. The model consensus continues to show dry conditions with the main storm track north of the area. However, there are at least two weak upper level disturbances progged to move through the area; one Saturday and the other Sunday into Monday (depending upon the model solution). The Saturday disturbance has the better chance at only seeing an increase in clouds given the limited moisture. The Sunday/Monday disturbance is more questionable. Return flow develops on Sunday and continues into Monday. Some deterministic solutions are still hinting at very light precipitation developing while others do not. Most ensemble members continue to be dry which is pushing the model consensus to remain dry. Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS develops very light QPF side- swiping the area on Saturday while Sunday into Monday is dry. The AIGFS is the opposite; Saturday is dry with very light QPF Sunday into Monday. As mentioned yesterday, the signal is barely above the background error noise. We will need to observe the trend as the week progresses to see if the signal gets stronger or weakens. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois to see some snow east of a line from KIIB to KMLI from a fast moving system. Highest impacts look to be at KDBQ with a period of IFR conditions in snow through 00z/31. After 00z/31 conditions improving to MVFR/VFR through 15z/31. After 15z/31 more snow with MVFR/IFR conditions as the next system arrives in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08