053 FXUS63 KDVN 300851 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 251 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fast moving clipper system is still on track to bring some rounds of light snow and flurries generally to the northeast half of the DVN forecast area from late morning and into early evening. Any accumulations look to be light and under an inch. - Another clipper system will impact similar areas mainly Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Accumulations look to be an inch or less for areas mainly north of I-80. - A slow warming trend will be seen late in the weekend and into early next week with temperatures trending to above normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 249 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The latest water vapor(WV) imagery was indicating the first upstream clipper currently acrs the MT/ND border region, embedded in dominant northwesterly steering flow acrs much of the central CONUS. It will have dry air to overcome, but this feature still expected to produce some light snow and flurries acrs generally the northeast half of the fcst area from late morning and especially this afternoon and early evening before shuttling off to the southeast of the area. Looking at combined lift and moisture profiles, even rather high LSR's of 13 to 16:1 produce less than an inch of snow accum by the time it is done. The far northwest IL counties/ Freeport will have the best chance of seeing a half inch to near an inch from this first wave, tailing off to a few hundredths of an inch or a dusting as you get down toward I-80. As the snow skirts out of here this evening, fcst soundings do top-down dry to freezing drizzle profiles as the evening and overnight progresses. But will hold off mention for now as hoping the lift is shut off behind the passing upper wave and is southeast of the area by the time the drizzle soundings occur acrs the area. As for temps, pre-system southwesterly boundary layer flow getting gusty will do a warming draw of air up acrs the area as the day progresses. Will be a bit conservative after a cold start to the day and with incoming clouds/light precip, will go with highs ranging from the upper 20s northeast, to the mid 30s in the southwest. Veering LLVL wind profiles to the west-northwest with the passing clipper keep going at 10-15 KTs and thus the mixing may keep overnight lows from dipping much below the mid and upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 249 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Wednesday...Tightening low to mid level baroclinic highway from the northwestern high plains to the southern GRT LKS will look to usher down yet another clipper wave for New Year's eve. This wave looks similar to the Tuesday clipper in strength and moisture availability, but may adjust it's track a bit further to the southwest. Light snow and flurries spreading in from the northwest from late morning and into the afternoon, again mainly targeting the east-northeast half of the DVN CWA before it scoots outta here by early evening. Another round of less than an inch in most areas that receive snow, with areas along and just south of the I-80 corridor lucky to get a dusting. Again like today(Tuesday), will have to watch for post snow freezing drizzle for a few hours until the lift shuts off or exits off to the southeast. With no real post wave cold draw behind the Tue system, the Wed wave will build upon the increased thicknesses and we may have highs well in the 30s for much of the area. The colder influx with an incoming Canadian high looks to occur behind the Wed wave and temps by New Year's morning look cold, with single digits above zero in the north to the mid teens south. Thursday and Friday...Right now ensemble thermodynamic and mass field placement suggest these two days mainly dry and seasonable temp-wise for early January...additional clipper track may be shunted more acrs MN into WI/central GRT LKS. Saturday through Monday...Looking at the latest suite of ensembles and upper jet trends, it appears building upstream upper ridge lobe will make an eastward adjustment some enough to bring a moderating temperature regime acrs the middle part of the country including the local area from late in the weekend and especially early next week. Well above normal temps may be in line for next Monday and Tuesday. It appears mainly dry this period as well, although there are some signs of an initial wave riding the ridge and utilizing warm air advection to possible produce some light precip later Sunday or Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 A ridge of high pressure sliding acrs the area will make for a VFR overnight into Tuesday morning, with northwesterly sfc winds of 10-15 KTs backing some to the southwest by mid Tue morning. This ahead of a clipper low rippling down along and northeast of the area on Tue. This system may produce a lowering mid deck with light snow or flurries by midday and into the afternoon at all TAF sites except maybe BRL. DBQ may get under a secondary round of light snow that may lower CIGs to MVFR by Tue evening, with possible MVFR VSBYs at times. Otherwise, gusty southwesterly sfc winds during Tue afternoon will veer back to the west-northwest during the evening after the clipper passage. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12