592 FXUS63 KDTX 010341 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1041 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snowfall begins this evening with totals of a half inch to two inches by Sunday morning. Low confidence for localized higher amounts. - Colder and drier on Sunday, followed by an extended warming trend during the upcoming workweek. - The next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs Tuesday with a wintry mix possible. && .AVIATION... Band of light to moderate snow driven by midlevel frontogenesis is now weakening as forcing pushes eastward. With lingering moisture, the potential exists for flurries to persist the first couple of hours of the period. Based on satellite and observation trends, decided to go fairly aggressive with improving flight categories by carrying a 9000 ft ceiling beginning at 08z. Very strong signal for steep isentropic downglide and dry air advection between 09-12z. Modest northeast east wind Sunday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this tonight. Low Sunday. * High in precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 813 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 UPDATE... No critical changes needed to the gridded database or the forecast messaging. There was a need to increase PoPs to get to 100% this evening. Efficient accumulating with temperatures now in the 20s supports widespread accumulation over much of Southeast Michigan north of I 94. 850-700mb frontogenesis will work through the area until 05z. Snowfall accumulations of a half inch to two inches is expected with a locally higher amount possible. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 DISCUSSION... Despite ongoing cold advection, a mostly sunny start to the day boosted temps well into the 40s across Metro Detroit and south, while 30s are prevalent elsewhere. The well advertised snow band is tracking across Lake Michigan with snow obs yet to be reported on the eastern shoreline. Very dry air has been in place across Lower MI, evidenced by a 35C+ dew point depression at 830mb/4200 ft AGL in the 12z DTX raob. Mid-level fgen and attendant ageostrophic response are ramping up this afternoon with a peak in forcing expected through mid evening, but much of this ascent will be used up to erode the dry sub-6000 ft layer. Model cross section analysis advertises modest, broad omega but with some intersection with lower static stability aloft. So transient weak banding is still in play, and a relatively abrupt onset to snow is expected over the next 2 to 4 hours as saturation is achieved. Light snowfall causes temps to drop below freezing with minor accumulations through the evening, then rates diminish late evening as forcing peels east. Low-level moisture advection off Lake Huron may keep spottier rates going for parts of the area past midnight. Regional observations indicate the band is following the more southern model solution, with the highest QPF favored to set up between I-69 and I-94. Snow totals of 1 to 2" are most likely in this corridor and the Thumb with lower amounts elsewhere. Localized amounts of 3" still plausible if brief band contraction occurs, but this carries low confidence in occurrence and placement. Additional lake effect snow showers are possible in the eastern Thumb Sunday morning but otherwise high pressure will reintroduce dry air and help scatter clouds through the day. The thermal trough overhead keeps high temps in the 20s and lower 30s tomorrow. High pressure passes east but maintains influence with dry conditions favored through Monday. Return flow begins to advect in a warmer air mass with a slight increase in daytime highs into the 30s. The next wave engages the frontal zone over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Monday night to lift an area of precipitation northward into southern Lower MI on Tuesday. Thermal profiles during this period generally show a shallow sub-freezing sfc layer with a warm nose aloft, so light wintry mix will be possible if the precip arrives during the morning. Ensemble probabilities indicate roughly a 20 to 30% chance of a glaze and near 0% for 0.10" of ice. A mild and active stretch is expected through the middle and end of next week as a strong Bermuda high induces a feed of Gulf warmth and moisture toward the southern Great Lakes. Several Pacific waves will track across the CONUS during this period, sending tongues of higher theta-e north with bouts of showers and even some thunderstorms. Model spread is high with regard to timing and placement of each system at this time but consensus supports the wetter pattern. MARINE... An upper level disturbance will bring light snow this evening. Steady low level cold advection through tomorrow morning as strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon. Subsequently, northwest winds around 20 this evening and tonight will decrease under 15 knots tomorrow and aob 10 knots by evening. As large high pressure moves off the East Coast early next week, strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the Great Lakes region. With the increase low level stability, it appears winds will just top out in the 25 to 30 knot range. A weak low tracking through the northern Ohio Valley mostly rain over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie, with dry weather and light winds returning Wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB UPDATE.......CB DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.