677 FXUS63 KDTX 282030 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snowfall begins this evening with totals of a half inch to two inches by Sunday morning. Low confidence for localized higher amounts. - Colder and drier on Sunday, followed by an extended warming trend during the upcoming workweek. - The next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs Tuesday with a wintry mix possible. && .DISCUSSION... Despite ongoing cold advection, a mostly sunny start to the day boosted temps well into the 40s across Metro Detroit and south, while 30s are prevalent elsewhere. The well advertised snow band is tracking across Lake Michigan with snow obs yet to be reported on the eastern shoreline. Very dry air has been in place across Lower MI, evidenced by a 35C+ dew point depression at 830mb/4200 ft AGL in the 12z DTX raob. Mid-level fgen and attendant ageostrophic response are ramping up this afternoon with a peak in forcing expected through mid evening, but much of this ascent will be used up to erode the dry sub-6000 ft layer. Model cross section analysis advertises modest, broad omega but with some intersection with lower static stability aloft. So transient weak banding is still in play, and a relatively abrupt onset to snow is expected over the next 2 to 4 hours as saturation is achieved. Light snowfall causes temps to drop below freezing with minor accumulations through the evening, then rates diminish late evening as forcing peels east. Low-level moisture advection off Lake Huron may keep spottier rates going for parts of the area past midnight. Regional observations indicate the band is following the more southern model solution, with the highest QPF favored to set up between I-69 and I-94. Snow totals of 1 to 2" are most likely in this corridor and the Thumb with lower amounts elsewhere. Localized amounts of 3" still plausible if brief band contraction occurs, but this carries low confidence in occurrence and placement. Additional lake effect snow showers are possible in the eastern Thumb Sunday morning but otherwise high pressure will reintroduce dry air and help scatter clouds through the day. The thermal trough overhead keeps high temps in the 20s and lower 30s tomorrow. High pressure passes east but maintains influence with dry conditions favored through Monday. Return flow begins to advect in a warmer air mass with a slight increase in daytime highs into the 30s. The next wave engages the frontal zone over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Monday night to lift an area of precipitation northward into southern Lower MI on Tuesday. Thermal profiles during this period generally show a shallow sub-freezing sfc layer with a warm nose aloft, so light wintry mix will be possible if the precip arrives during the morning. Ensemble probabilities indicate roughly a 20 to 30% chance of a glaze and near 0% for 0.10" of ice. A mild and active stretch is expected through the middle and end of next week as a strong Bermuda high induces a feed of Gulf warmth and moisture toward the southern Great Lakes. Several Pacific waves will track across the CONUS during this period, sending tongues of higher theta-e north with bouts of showers and even some thunderstorms. Model spread is high with regard to timing and placement of each system at this time but consensus supports the wetter pattern. && .MARINE... An upper level disturbance will bring light snow this evening. Steady low level cold advection through tomorrow morning as strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon. Subsequently, northwest winds around 20 this evening and tonight will decrease under 15 knots tomorrow and aob 10 knots by evening. As large high pressure moves off the East Coast early next week, strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the Great Lakes region. With the increase low level stability, it appears winds will just top out in the 25 to 30 knot range. A weak low tracking through the northern Ohio Valley mostly rain over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie, with dry weather and light winds returning Wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 AVIATION... An area of light snow now moving toward srn Lake Mi is located along an elevated frontal boundary. This region of ascent will move across the Se Mi terminals late this afternoon and evening. The position of radar returns upstream is supportive of those model solutions which bring the axis of strongest ascent across the KPTK and possibly KFNT terminals, with the metro Detroit terminals along the southern edge of the stronger forcing. The onset of light snow is forecast to arrive between 21Z and 00Z. Given the very dry low level airmass, the initial intensity is likely to remain light under VFR conditions. As the column moistens, snowfall intensity will increase toward 00Z, with the strongest ascent then persisting through 04 to 05Z. Low level moistening with the snow and low level cold air advection will support MVFR and some IFR conditions in the light snow. An inch or two accumulation is forecast during the evening. As the forcing wanes during the overnight, lingering low level moisture will maintain some lingering light snow showers/flurries and low clouds until a more notable push of dry air infiltrates the region from the north late tonight into Sunday morning. For DTW...There is still some uncertainty as to whether the stronger forcing and thus the region of better accumulation potential will extend into metro or remain just north. The latter would put around an inch of accums into play across metro. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening and overnight. * High in precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......SF AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.