182 FXUS63 KDTX 310818 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 318 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow returns this afternoon and evening. Snow accumulations to range between a half-inch to an inch by late tonight. Some isolated snow squalls possible which could bring localized totals near 2 inches. - Seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. The coldest temperatures will overnight with lows in the single digits and wind chills as low as the negative single digits. && .DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level PV anomaly located north of Lake Superior will pivot south across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, driving height falls and sharpening the low-level baroclinic zone, with robust cold air advection rapidly increasing in its wake. This will bring renewed snow chances across SE MI through the afternoon and evening. Snow generally remains light for most locations with expected accumulations ranging between a half-inch to an inch by tonight. Some highly localized totals nearing two inches cannot be ruled out noting 0-1km theta-e lapse rates peaking near -2K/km by the late afternoon and early evening with the surge of colder air filtering in. This brings the potential for brief put periodic heavy snow showers or snow squalls across the forecast area. Additionally, frontogenetical forcing is expected to maximize near the MI/OH border by the evening, which may briefly support a quick period of more organized ascent leading to brief localized higher snow rates. Last, there is a very low end possibility for a meso-vort feature to develop across Lake Huron with potential to clip the northern Thumb. All of these aforementioned features bring low-end potential for those localized higher snow amounts along with brief but rapid reductions to visibilities. Otherwise, breezy today with gusts around 30 mph, isolated 35, with below normal highs in the upper 20s. Post frontal northwest flow to rapidly drop 850mb temperatures to near -20C. There are uncertainties as to how well stratus will be able to persist given the associated dry air incoming with the arctic airmass, but the forecast hedges towards increasing clearing trends through the night, which if realized will easily support overnight lows in the single digits for New Years morning. This would bring wind chills near 0 and down into the negative single digits. The Great Lakes will remain well wedged within the thermal trough on New Years Day supporting highs in the low 20s. Some flurries possible during the day as winds back from northwest to west, releasing lake moisture inland. An elevated front provides some additional light snow chances briefly Friday morning, but any accumulation remains limited. Outside of this, mainly dry conditions prevail to end the week along with below normal temperatures. Highs hold in the 20s with lows in the teens. Upper level trough to pivot out of the region early next week with flow becoming more zonal. This will moderate temperatures to near normal through the week as the warmer temperatures across the Plains filters into the area. && .MARINE... Arctic air remains over the region with a surface trough draped across Lake Superior and Lake Huron. This airmass will keep northwesterly winds elevated with gusts to around 25 knots through Wednesday evening and in turn keep wave heights increased to Small Craft Advisory criteria through most of tonight. A weak low pressure system will track along the stalled front Wednesday evening with an arctic front which will reinforces arctic air over the region. This will result in an uptick in northwesterly wind that is projected to remain below gales through Thursday, but max out around 30 knots for a period this evening. Sub gales, occasional snow showers, and freezing spray then persist over the central Great Lakes into next weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 AVIATION... Area of light snow exits to the southeast early this morning. A cold west-northwest flow will maintain some degree of moisture flux off lake Michigan overnight and Wednesday morning. This may offer some additional intervals of light snow showers or flurries at times, particularly at PTK/FNT. These conditions will maintain some fluctuation of ceiling height between MVFR and VFR through the latter half of the night. Moisture will increase ahead of an arctic front Wednesday afternoon. This will allow light snow to increase in coverage. Conditions may become favorable for brief higher intensity snow showers or squalls late in the day, with a focus along the passing frontal boundary. Westerly wind turning gusty during the afternoon, peaking near 25 knots. For DTW...Potential for a period of light snow Wednesday afternoon. Some higher intensity bursts of snow/brief squalls are possible late Wednesday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings below 5000 feet through Wednesday evening. * High for precipitation type of snow. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......DRK AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.