895 FXUS63 KDTX 301948 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 248 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Two periods of light snow, each of which are forecast to produce half an inch to two inches of accumulation. The first will occur this evening/tonight and the second Wednesday afternoon, when there is also a chance of isolated snow squalls. - Seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. The coldest temperatures will be New Year's Eve evening into News Year's Day with wind chills around zero. && .DISCUSSION... Amplified, slow evolving upper level pattern over North America for the rest of the week into the Weekend, as large upper level low over Eastern Canada persists. Strong PV anomaly diving south-southeast out of the Arctic circle will bring a chance of snow squalls Wednesday afternoon, and causing the deeper 500 MB low to retrograde northwest over Hudson Bay by Wednesday evening. Thursday morning looks to be the coldest period of the week. Two episodes of light accumulating snow expected. The first one occurs this evening-tonight, as a compact shortwave/jet streak tracks southeast through the Western Great Lakes. The best 850-700 MB lift/forcing and moisture looks to be tracking through northern Indiana. However, there is a surface reflection/trough tracking through southern Lower Michigan tonight. We have had flurries around throughout the day. Thus, it should not be difficult to get a seeder/feeder process with thermal profiles in the favorable dgz. Strong model consensus with qpf totals of 0.05-0.10 inches across much of southeast Michigan, thus half an inch to 2 inches of snow looks fine for most. If a lingering westerly band persists late tonight, could see localized slightly higher totals of fluffy snow, most likely around the M-59/I-69 corridors. On flip side, areas north of M-46 will struggle to even reach 1 inch. More pronounced surface troughing/low level convergence with the Arctic front moving through Wednesday afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates, generating capes of 25-50 j/kg in the DGZ as inversion heights reach 7 kft will lead to localized heavier snow showers. Probably just enough wind (~30 knots) in the column to support the possibility of snow squalls. Due to the convective nature, looking at more variable snow accumulations, but generally half an inch to 2 inches should cover most as low level winds veer to the northwest by early evening. If skies are able to clear out, mins near zero are likely across the good radiators with the fresh snow cover as winds attempt to decouple. 850 MB temps bottoming out around -20 C Thursday morning should translate to maxes only around 20 degrees for Thursday. The airmass will then slowly moderate to finish the work week into the Weekend. Warm advection/elevated warm front may be able to generate a little light snow Thursday evening. Will have to watch a backdoor cold front Friday night, but likely holding over the northern Great Lakes. Otherwise, surface high pressure and dry weather expected to be in place for the Weekend, with temps near freezing Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Arctic air remains over the region with a surface trough draped across Lake Superior and Lake Huron. This airmass will keep northwesterly winds elevated with gusts to around 25 knots tonight through Wednesday and in turn wave heights increased to Small Craft Advisory criteria through most of tonight. A weak system will track along the stalled front tonight bringing a round of light snow tonight into Wednesday. A second system will drop though Wednesday evening with a cold front which will reinforces arctic air over the region. This will result in an uptick in NW wind that is projected to remain below gales through Thursday. Sub gales, occasional snow showers, and freezing spray then persist over the central Great Lakes into next weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 AVIATION... All terminals have seen ceilings fall to high MVFR late this morning as light lake effect snow showers lessen in coverage/intensity. These light snow showers/flurries persist into the evening before a clipper system arrives bringing widespread light accumulating snowfall through the first half of tonight. Ceilings hold MVFR throughout with vsbys ranging between IFR-MVFR dependent on location of heavier snow. In general, most areas likely see between 0.5-1" of new snow. Breezy WNW winds gradually weaken toward 10-15kts as they turn WSW tonight. Winds restrengthen daytime Wednesday as another clipper arrives with late morning-afternoon gusts back up around 25kts. Another inch or so of snow is forecast with this second system. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings below 5000 feet through the forecast period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......DRK AVIATION.....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.