428 FXUS63 KDMX 282040 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 240 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry precipitation continues to trend southward later Sunday into early Monday, with only light snow amounts expected in far southern Iowa during this time. - Freezing drizzle possible over at least southern Iowa late Sunday into Monday morning, leading to a potential for hazardous travel during the commute time period. - Milder into next week with several rounds of precipitation chances possible, mainly in the form of rain accompanied by thunder at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Dry conditions across the greater majority of Iowa today, though cannot say the same just over the IA/MN border where a notable band of snow has been sliding east/southeastward through the day. The snow up in this area led to low visibilities under a mile, with accumulations of a few inches of more, but into northern Iowa, particularly in the CWA, only a few locations such as Mason City and Forest City saw only a dusting earlier this morning. Otherwise, the expectation is that the snow will remain out of forecast area for the rest of the day, which will overall lose its forcing through the rest of the afternoon and especially evening. Though remaining dry, cloud cover will hold on over portions of northern to eastern Iowa, slowly deteriorating as they gradually move south into Iowa by tonight. Regarding temperatures, temperatures have been slow to warm across the northern two thirds of the state, with values in the 20s to low 30s, whereas southern Iowa has warmed into the 40s to low 50s where sunny skies are more widespread, along with breezy northeast winds occasionally gusting up to 20-25 mph. Expected temps to warm just a bit more this afternoon, before falling near and just after sunset, along with decreasing winds as the PBL becomes more stable. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the teens to low 20s, warmest south. Sunday looks to be on the dry side through the morning, though the system that has been well known over the last several days is still expected to arrive into the region into the afternoon, characterized by a mid-level shortwave trough over Nebraska/Kansas tracking eastward into Missouri and influencing parts of Iowa. With this feature comes some moisture return, which is largely focused over Missouri, thanks to the rather large area of surface high pressure further north that will continue to descend over the Great Lakes at the same time. Models continue to trend even more so on the drier side over the greater majority of Iowa, including the Euro which was much slower over the last several days in catching on to the intrusion of dry air that will spread over the state due to this high pressure over much of the region. With the bulk of moisture and isentropic forcing for ascent generally over Missouri Sunday afternoon to evening, the PoP trends have decreased even further with the current package, with any potential for at least some minor snow accumulations looking to largely originate over very far southern Iowa, then increasing in amounts southward through Missouri. Specifically, expecting up to a few tenths south of Highway 34, while further into central Iowa could occasionally see a few flurries as some flakes may overcome the dry low levels given some indication of more notable lift within the saturated DGZ, though with no expected accumulations. While the mid-level saturation decreases across the region late Sunday into Monday morning, which indicates loss of ice introduction and therefore cutting out any lingering snowflake production, models indicate lingering low level saturation over portions of southern Iowa as the shortwave continues to gradually depart eastward, where this saturation paired with an least weak forcing in these area suggests a window of freezing rain/drizzle. The NAM is the most robust in this potential as it suggests low level saturation over 1km and a veering wind profile that would indicate turbulence to aid in increased particle interactions and thus better potential to see at least drizzle at the surface. Given uncertainty on the extent of lift to aid in more efficient icing potential from any freezing drizzle, have held off on any winter headlines at this time, but will be monitoring trends very closely. The important takeaway is that freezing drizzle is possible that could lead to at least a minor glaze of icing if this does setup over southern Iowa, so plan ahead on potential slick conditions into the Monday morning commute time. Conditions look to dry out at least briefly into the afternoon, but then a weak shortwave just ahead of a strengthening western CONUS trough looks to arrive into western Iowa Monday evening/Tuesday, bringing additional chances for precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 The weather pattern only becomes more active into the mid-week period as a rather robust frontal boundary with notable forcing lifts up into Iowa, which looks to come with warmer air and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. There are some notable differences on how the larger scale features responsible for this active pattern evolve into the latter portion of the work week, but looks to generally trend with additional chances for precipitation, while also warmer with highs in the 50s to 60s. More details to come during this time frame in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Low clouds have spread over portions of northern Iowa as a band of snow over southern Minnesota passes through, which has lead to some periods of snow mainly at KMCW and MVFR conditions given low ceilings. Low ceilings remain possible mainly at KMCW through this evening, with low clouds at/near KFOD and KALO into the evening as well leading to potential periods of MVFR conditions, though lower confidence at this time and will monitor trends. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions to return for all areas later tonight and through Sunday, though mid-level cloud coverage increases through the day. Winds will remain east/northeasterly through the period, with speeds generally up to 10-15 knots. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Bury AVIATION...Bury