324 

FXUS63 KDMX 301723

AFDDMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Flurries possible northeast this afternoon.



- Chance of snow northeast Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall totals

  under an inch.



- Cold beginning to the new year with morning lows in the teens

  and single digits.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Stratus and high level clouds started to invade from the north this 

morning. A thermal ridge established a warm layer over the state 

with highs this afternoon reaching the freezing mark in the 

southwest half. Warmth won't advance much more than that as a series 

of clippers will get in the way. The first clipper will bring weak 

saturation to northeast Iowa, resulting mostly in flurries this 

evening for places like Mason City and Waverly.



For Wednesday, dry air from an incoming Canadian high raises 

questions on saturation for Iowa. The main QPF axis is tucked close 

to the wave itself, affecting northeast Iowa with light snow 

accumulations. Trends are worth watching for the rest of the state 

as there will be another weak feature in play just to the west in 

Nebraska. Low-level Q vectors converge as the thermal ridge 

temperature gradient compacts with the waves, creating a boundary 

across Iowa. The RAP has offered a more stagnant progression of the 

boundary, with most of the sub-DGZ layer saturated for a few

hours (freezing drizzle). The NAM and GFS are quick to advect 

this boundary away due to the high and are also dry as a result.

Continuing to side with the dry solutions at this range. CAA 

drops lows into the teens and single digits to begin 2026.



Temperatures level back out to near average marks for the rest

of the week with the warmest temperatures in the southwest. The

ridge will eventually win out sometime early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



An area of flurries and light snow is drifting over northern 

and northeastern Iowa, resulting in brief MVFR visibility and 

ceiling reductions. After this departs to the east this

afternoon, MVFR stratus clouds will begin to drift southward

through the night, eventually impacting all sites. Snow chances

return to the northeast tomorrow morning, but probabilities are

too low to include in TAFs at this time.



&&



.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Jimenez

AVIATION...Dodson