279 FXUS63 KDLH 291831 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 4 PM with a second line of storms likely to redevelop and cross the BWCA tonight. - High heat and humidity this afternoon with heat index values over 100 degrees prompting Extreme Heat Warnings and Advisories. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist along Lake Superior beaches due to strong rip currents through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 For the rest of the day, our primary concerns will be the oppressive heat and the severe weather threat. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for the southern half of the Northland. We are noting that CAMS guidance is not doing well, but there is plenty of CAPE with storms riding along a warm front. In addition, rich PWATs of 2.4+ inches giving heavy rainfall with warm sector inflow providing dewpoints in the 80s. This incredible moisture is pushing heat index values well past the 100 degree mark for many of our southern communities. Meanwhile, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 4 PM for all of northeast Minnesota. The current storm moving through St. Louis County presents itself very similar to the radar presentation of the 1999 BWCA blowdown storm with similar timing too! Thus far, this storm hasn't been too effective in bringing down winds to the surface, at least in the last 3 hours; however, the environment over NE Minnesota is rich as a little clearing occurred to allow the storm to become more surface based increasing the threat for winds as it moves through the Arrowhead. Similarly, the storm's southern end also is beginning to take on a identity of its own and should run east into the higher richer moisture. Should be an active afternoon. In addition to the storm threat, there is a wake low that is causing really strong winds in the wake of the convective line which could gust to 50 to 60 mph! As we move into the evening and overnight hours, the threat for severe weather continues. Models continue to indicate that redevelopment is likely this evening causing a second line of storms to cross through the BWCA. Given the extreme instability and moisture in place, these storms will pose a substantial risk for large hail, damaging winds, and intense downpours capable of localized flooding. Temperatures tonight will provide little relief from the heat, with lows struggling to fall below 70 degrees in many locations. For tomorrow, a cold front will slowly work eastward across the region. Heat Advisories will linger for our northwest Wisconsin counties as temperatures once again climb into the 90s, though drier air will slowly filter into Minnesota. Instability will pool ahead of the advancing front, bringing another round of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours across northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds will once again be the primary hazards. Looking ahead to Wednesday, the active summer pattern will persist. We will maintain southwesterly flow aloft as a shortwave passes through the region. This will bring additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong given the lingering instability. Temperatures will remain quite warm, generally in the 80s to near 90 degrees, ensuring the humid feel sticks around the area. For Thursday through the upcoming weekend, broad ridging will remain anchored to our east with troughing to the west. This setup keeps the Northland in a warm and active southwest flow regime. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will remain somewhat steady in the 80s. While not every day will be a washout, anyone with outdoor holiday weekend plans should monitor the forecast closely. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Flight conditions will vary greatly across the Northland over the next 24 hours. A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as scattered severe thunderstorms impact terminals this afternoon and again tonight with a second line. Dense fog near Lake Superior will gradually lift this afternoon. Expect gusty and erratic winds near any thunderstorms, otherwise generally southerly to southwesterly winds will prevail outside of the lake breeze. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM this afternoon for western Lake Superior, while a Small Craft Advisory runs until 10 PM tonight due to gusty northeast winds up to 30 knots and elevated waves. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again tonight, posing a risk for large hail, gale force wind gusts, and frequent lightning. Winds will become southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday with waves subsiding. Expect additional thunderstorm chances through midweek. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period due to high humidity and multiple rounds of widespread rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50 percent today, though Tuesday could see values drop into the 35 to 45 percent range. Winds will be gusty out of the southeast today at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, shifting to the southwest on Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the middle of the week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ025-033>036. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ038. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ006-007. Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ002>004-008-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe FIRE WEATHER...Wolfe