102 FXUS63 KDLH 291257 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 757 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms continue early this morning. While most storms are not expected to be severe, an isolated strong to severe storm or two capable of producing large hail can't be ruled out. - A conditional chance for strong to severe storms exists today and Tuesday. There will be additional chances of thunderstorms Wednesday through next Sunday. - Hot and humid weather is expected starting today and lasting through this week. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued for east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin Monday into Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Storms have finally made an appearance this morning, though the potential strength of the storms has lessened considerably. However, there is one storm moving north that has managed to break the stout cap that was seen in MPX's 00Z balloon data, so the possibility for strong to severe storms are not completely out of the question. Main hazards will be hail and damaging winds into this morning. CAMS are still trying to catch up, but the HRRR is doing the best at the moment, representing the current storms the best. Other CAMS want to continue to predict the aforementioned line of storms this evening into the overnight, but the HRRR has backed off from that solution. Regardless, CAMS still show severe storms expected tonight, the only question remains where. It looks like the heat may come to fruition today as there are already clearing skies behind the few storms to our south. One snag that remains is that the current cloud cover seems to be back filling as well. We will see if daytime mixing will help the clouds to dissipate or if continued warm air advection will keep the cloud cover up throughout the day. Rinse and repeat the hazardous swimming conditions at the beached around the Twin Ports from strong northeast winds continuing today. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 This afternoon and tonight: We have a fair amount of cloud cover over the region this afternoon, and this has suppressed thunderstorm activity this afternoon. We do have some clearing down towards the Twin Cities with some building instability down there where a warm front is present. This warm front will slowly lift northward tonight, but the actual surface front will still remain pretty well south of our area. Elevated instability associated with strong warm air and moisture advection will gradually increase overnight, and we may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. CAMs have been struggling to paint a reasonable picture of what might happen later tonight as they fail to capture current conditions well, placing rain showers where none is currently falling. The overall synoptic pattern tonight will be broad ridging aloft without much focused synoptic support for storms. Therefore, we essentially have some factors favoring storms (increasing instability) and negating factors (lack of broad synoptic support). Any showers and storms that develop are expected to be elevated. We will have potential for 2-3k J/kg of MUCAPE, but that's only if some of the capping can be eroded, which isn't a guarantee. So, the risk for severe weather tonight looks pretty isolated. Large hail is looking to be the primary hazard in addition to the usual thunder/lightning and heavy rain threat with general thunderstorms. Monday and Monday night: As has been the story of this weather pattern, whatever thunderstorm activity happens tonight will at least partially determine how storms and heat end up panning out for Monday and Monday night. In addition to that, guidance in the broader sense seems to have a bit of a Fujiwara effect between an upper low over Montana and a trough moving north across the Dakotas Monday. Convection over there may take more of a northerly trajectory that could bring the risk for severe weather further north into Canada. With all that said, we will be dealing with substantial instability and heat on Monday in our area with 3-4k J/kg of MUCAPE (most of which will probably be elevated and capped during the day Monday). Some CAMs bring nearly all convection north of the Canadian border while some develop a squall line that, if it happened, could bring a threat for large hail (to about golf ball size, perhaps larger), strong winds (to about 70 mph), and perhaps a tornado or two. This would be most likely in the afternoon through early overnight. This threat remains very conditional, so stay tuned for updates. We'll know more once we see how thunderstorms develop Monday morning across the Dakotas. As for the heat, it's still looking like it will be a hot day. The current forecast is largely in line with the NBM, which is on the upper end of guidance. This means there's at least some potential for temperatures to be a little cooler than forecast, but not likely to be warmer. Main concerns with that are lingering cloud cover and capping that could result in temperatures slightly less hot than forecast. But there's definitely high potential for 100 degree plus heat index values with very high dew points in the mid to upper 70s for much of east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Because of this, a few Extreme Heat Warnings have been issued for Pine/Burnett/Washburn counties and a broader swath of Heat Advisories have been issued for east-central and all remaining northwest Wisconsin counties. We opted not to issue for the South St. Louis and Carlton county zone since we will have onshore flow from Lake Superior that should keep most of the county from reaching criteria. With that said, the far western and southern areas of that zone should see ~100 degree heat indices a ways away from the lake influence. Heat Advisories for Bayfield/Sawyer counties and east go through Tuesday early evening as lows are not likely to fall below 70 degrees Monday night, and we'll see another hot day there on Tuesday with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees again. Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected in the advised areas. Tuesday and Tuesday night: A cold front will slowly work east on Tuesday, and out ahead of it, instability will linger mainly across northwest Wisconsin but also perhaps a ways into east-central Minnesota. We may start to lose some capping, so that works in favor of there being some thunderstorms in general. A few storms capable of producing some large hail and strong winds may be possible, and timing of those could be morning, afternoon, or both. This remains a conditional threat much like Monday, but with increasing likelihood that there will be at least a few storms out there as the cap starts to erode ahead of the cold front. It is looking like another hot day, especially in northwest Wisconsin. On the Minnesota side, dew points and temperatures take a bit of a tumble, so it won't feel quite as hot as Monday. Wednesday through the Weekend: On Wednesday, we'll have to keep an eye on potential for some more convection with southwesterly flow and a shortwave passing by aloft. The storm threat could continue into Wednesday night. MUCAPE in the 1-2k J/kg range may be marginally favorable for some severe weather. Otherwise, more warm/hot weather is expected. General warm southwesterly flow will continue on into the weekend, so expect more of the same with warm to hot weather and plenty of chances for thunderstorms. Severe weather may be possible at times. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 750 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Crummy flight conditions this morning with some improvement this afternoon though a supercell (or remnants thereof) will clip KINL early this afternoon. Another round of convection will spark this evening and run west to east across the forecast area. This convection is expected to be severe. Meanwhile, fog will roll through this morning near Duluth with onshore flow and thunderstorms over Lake Superior. Thinking this will eventually break by this afternoon. Winds are generally fairly light out of the east or southeast except near thunderstorms. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Rinse and repeat the strong northeast winds for today, making conditions hazardous for small craft again today into tonight. Winds will finally decrease for Tuesday to 15 kts out of the southwest, ending the pattern that we've seen the last few days. Showers and storms are expected over western Lake Superior for today and Tuesday capable of producing large hail and gale- force winds. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Fire weather concerns are low as moist air moves up from the south for the better part of this week. Tuesday has the best potential for low RH ranging 35-45%. Gusty winds continue into this week, starting out of the southeast and switching to the southwest late tonight. Both days, sustained winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph are expected. Despite the moist air, there is also hot air as well, with temperatures each day well into the 80s and lower 90s through the week. The only caveat would be whether increased cloud cover would curb the temperatures in places expected to reach over 90. Either way, hot and uncomfortable conditions will persist for the rest of the week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ025-033>036. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ038. WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ006-007. Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ002>004-008-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML