794 

FXUS63 KDLH 282315

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

515 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well below normal temperatures for today and tomorrow with 

  sub zero lows and afternoon highs in the single digits to 

  teens. 

- Warming again for the coming work week with a daily 

  freeze/thaw cycle likely. Some days with high temperatures in 

  the mid to upper 40s are expected mid to late week with 

  pockets of 50s possible. 

- A light dusting of snow possible for the Borderlands Tuesday,

  and then a more active pattern could start up again towards

  the end of the week. Depending on exact storm track and

  temperatures, accumulating mixed precipitation could impact

  the Northland.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



As high pressure continues to slide into the Upper Midwest and 

across the Great Lakes this weekend, the Northland should stay 

under fairly calm and cold conditions. Daytime highs are 

expected to just barely top out in the single digits and teens 

today and tomorrow, with sub zero overnight lows. While some mid

to high clouds remain prevalent today and this evening from a 

band of snow to our south, clearing is expected under the heart 

of the high pressure tomorrow to make for a congruous sunny 

Sunday. 



Into next week, we’ll find ourselves stuck in the synoptic 

doldrums as persistent upper level ridging over the gulf and 

troughing over the southwest advects copious amounts of moisture

and warmth into the south-central CONUS but troughing over 

Hudson Bay locks our area into fairly zonal flow and on the 

right exit region of the prevailing jet stream to our north. A 

momentary break in that jet stream could yield itself to a 

little clipper brushing over the international border Tuesday 

that might bring a light dusting of snow to the far north CWA. 

This pattern should bring warmer temperatures into the region, 

with highs above freezing expected for all of the Northland 

through the week but a refreeze at night is likely. 



Later in the week, global models are generally in agreement 

that troughing should begin to move over the central CONUS and 

allow for additional moisture and warm air advection into our 

area. This will probably mean warmer high temperatures at least 

into the 40s mid to late week with some areas along the southern

CWA border possibly struggling to get below freezing at night. 

With current snowpack conditions, some transformation and melt 

is likely through the week, and this may start to eat away at 

the already meager snowpack that exists along the southern edge 

of the CWA. The freeze/thaw cycle will also likely lend itself 

to the potential for fog development. 



Ensembles are starting to get a little more attached to the idea

of a Colorado Low type system that could move over MN/WI in the

late Thu - early Sat timeframe impacting the Northland.

Depending on the track and intensity of this system, some areas

of heavy mixed precipitation (rain, freezing rain, snow) could

be possible. At this time range however, it could also shift and

miss our area entirely. Something to keep an eye on for now.

Once that system moves through, synoptic pattern agreement

breaks down with solutions ranging between having more Colorado

Low/Gulf air influence from the south or a return to some

slightly cooler air and systems that track along the

International Border. Eventually ensembles do come back to some

agreement showing that cooler airmass pushing into northern MN

by mid March, but the disagreement on how fast we get there and

what kind of systems we experience before that point is large.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Broken ceilings at around 8 kft and higher will persist this

evening, but generally clouds are expected to start clearing out

with high pressure passing through on Sunday. Winds are expected

to be light and variable as high pressure passes through with

VFR conditions through the period.



&&



.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Fairly calm conditions under high pressure this weekend with

light winds out of the northwest to west through midday Sunday.

Through Sunday afternoon and evening, winds turn to become

southwesterly into Monday. Those SW winds could increase into

Monday as warm air surges into the area. Some gusts in excess of

25 knots are possible Monday along portions of the North Shore

from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Calmer conditions return

into Tuesday. 



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Levens

AVIATION...JDS

MARINE...Levens