760 

FXUS63 KDDC 291725

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered thunderstorm chances (30-50%) Tuesday.



- Near to above normal temperatures likely through the end of

  the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the 

Western High Plains downstream of a broad scale upper level trough 

anchored across the Great Basin. Near the surface, a lee side trough 

of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado line.



Although drier conditions are likely for the most part tonight, an 

isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled this evening as the 

SREF continues to indicate an embedded upper level shortwave trough 

lifting northeast across the Central Rockies with weak associated H5 

vort maxima transitioning through the high plains of western Kansas 

early in the period. Near the surface, developing low pressure in 

southeast Colorado will strengthen while shifting slowly east into 

extreme southwest Kansas, helping nudge a sharpening dryline 

eastward through much of southwest Kansas by early evening while 

pooling moisture ahead of the dryline will provide ample instability 

with MUCAPE values upward of 3500 to 4000 J/kg. Despite modest 

capping in place and a relatively weak flow aloft, isolated 

thunderstorm development is possible early this evening in 

vicinity of the aforementioned dryline. This is suggested by the

latest HREF indicating a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding

0.1 of an inch in eastern portions of southwest Kansas near and

along the Oklahoma line by late evening. A similar situation 

will exist for Tuesday, yet a stronger perturbation lifting 

northeast through the Colorado Rockies, providing a stronger 

southwest flow aloft across western Kansas, and a weaker cap may

lead to more scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.

The HREF supports this with a more widespread 50-70% probability

of 6-hr QPF topping 0.25 of an inch across across portions of 

southwest Kansas into west central Kansas, generally along and 

west of a Hays to Dodge City line.



Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely tonight as prevailing 

southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across the 

Western High Plains. Look for lows generally down into the 70s(F) 

again tonight. High temperatures are expected to back off slightly 

Tuesday with a projected retreating dryline allowing moisture back 

into much of southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF shows only a 20-

40% probability of temperatures exceeding 95F in west central Kansas 

and portions of southwest Kansas to a 70-90% probability of nudging 

above 95F in south central Kansas, expect widespread afternoon highs

in the 90s(F). Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through 

early Tuesday. South-southwest winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 

35kt will persist through early Tuesday morning with a lee side

trough of low pressure remaining anchored near and along the 

Colorado line.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JJohnson

AVIATION...JJohnson