801 FXUS63 KDDC 290524 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer heat will be the primary concern through the week with highs in the 90s to around 100 possible. - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Stafford, Pratt and Barber Counties this afternoon. In this area afternoon heat index values will be as high as 105 to 108 possible. - Isolated to widely scattered late day/evening thunderstorms possible through mid week, mainly late Tuesday and Wednesday. - On Tuesday there is a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms west of a Hays to Garden City to Ulysses line. Strong gusty winds will be the main hazards but some isolated hail can not be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Earlier this evening a dryline divided southwest Kansas almost in half. West of the boundary, dewpoints in the 30s and 40s are moderating heat index values to around 100. East of the boundary, dewpoints range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, yielding heat index values of 100 to 105, with isolated readings near 108F in south central Kansas. between 15z and 18z as wind speeds increase to near 20 knots. For the start of the work week, summer heat remains the primary concern. Today we can expect similar conditions as those we had on Sunday. A dryline will be located across southwest Kansas during the afternoon and 850-700mb temperatures during the late day will being greater than the 95th percentile for this time of year. As a result, highs will be at least as warm as yesterday (Sunday) and with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the dry line the heat index values 10 to around 105 will once again be possible across portions, especially across south central Kansas. A Heat Advisory for portions of south central Kansas has already been issued for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber Counties where the highest afternoon heat index values are expected. While the warmest afternoon temperatures will again be west of the advisory area, lower humidity levels will keep heat index values below criteria in those regions. There will be a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm to two early this evening along the dryline that will be located in southwest Kansas given low level forcing and afternoon instability despite the lack of any real forcing aloft. The better mid level lift/forcing will be located north/northwest of the area late day as an upper level wave crosses the Central Rockies. Warm mid level temperatures will also aid in limiting thunderstorm development however even taking this into account at this time can not completely rule out a late day/evening storm or two. This summer heat will continue on Tuesday. Temperatures however will not be as warm as Sunday and Monday given the latest 24 hour trend of the 850mb temperatures from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday as the southwesterly flow becomes more south southeast. Afternoon temperatures across southwest Kansas should still have no problem climbing into the mid to upper 90s, and with increasing dewpoints during the day, the heat indices east of Highway 283 will once again climb into the 100 and 103 degrees. Advisory criteria level heat index readings however are not expected so No heat headlines are currently planned. Despite not heat headlines...anyone with outdoor plans should take plenty of breaks and limit their time outdoors. A better chance for evening thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday as an upper level trough moves from the Four Corners region and into the central Rockies by evening. As this upper level trough approaches there will be improving lift aloft ahead of the approaching trough as instability increases late day over the surface boundary that is forecast to be located over southwest Kansas. Main hazards will be the strong gusty winds given the high cloud bases model sounding profiles. Mid to late week, additional upper level shortwave troughs will continue to cross the West Central High Plains as the upper high over the eastern United States begins to weaken and the flow aloft starts to shift from the southwest to a more westerly flow. This will result in ongoing chances for scattered thunderstorms along a surface boundary that is forecast to be located in or near western Kansas. In addition to these chances for isolated to widely scattered evening thunderstorms, 850-700mb temperature trends continue to support highs in the 95 to 100 degree range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 South to southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots will continue overnight as a low level jet develops. Wind gusts of around 55 knots will be possible with the low level jet through 12z Monday. These stronger winds will mix down to the surface by mid day as the wind speed max axis east of a surface dryline shifts toward central Kansas. By midday, the dryline is forecast to be located east of Highway 283. As this dryline passes the southerly winds will become southwesterly and decrease to around 15 knots. These gusty southwest winds will then back to the southeast after 00z Tuesday as the dryline moves west toward the Colorado border. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ066-081-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert