015 FXUS63 KDDC 282210 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorm chances (20-30%) Monday and Tuesday afternoon. - Highs reaching near the century mark Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough sinking southward into the Great Basin. Near the surface, a strengthening lee side trough of low pressure and an associated sharpening dryline remains anchored near and along the Colorado line. Prevailing drier/warmer conditions are likely to persist tonight into early Monday as the SREF indicates broader scale upper level troughing dominating the Intermountain West. However, there is a very small risk for isolated thunderstorm development (20-30% chance) late Monday as an embedded upper level shortwave within the larger scale trough cycles northeast across the Central Rockies, sending weak H5 vort maxima through the high plains of western Kansas. In response, developing low pressure will strengthen across southeast Colorado, supporting a sharpening dryline advancing east through southwest Kansas. Pooling moisture ahead of the dryline will provide ample instability with MUCAPE values in excess of 3500 to 4000 J/kg. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates from peak daytime heating, thunderstorm development will be possible as H5 vort maxima transition through the region, interacting with the dryline. However, modest capping and a lack of a robust flow aloft will likely keep any potential storm development more isolated. This is supported by the HREF pointing to a only a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in vicinity of the dryline generally across eastern portions of southwest Kansas into central/south central Kansas by late Monday evening. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday with the latest NBM showing a 20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in general vicinity of the dryline by late Tuesday evening. Mild temperatures are forecast again tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce the warmer air mass across the region. Expect lows generally down into the 70s(F) with near 80F in south central Kansas. Look for afternoon highs back up near 100F Monday with the dryline projected to oscillate back to the east across southwest Kansas. Highs may back off a little Tuesday with the SREF indicating the dryline retreating westward, allowing more low level moisture back into the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds will remain out of the south to south-southwest through 00Z Tuesday, sustained in the 20-25 kt range gusting to 30-35 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Springer