853 

FXUS63 KDDC 310436

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1036 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures to continue through the week



- No precipitation in the forecast as northwesterly flow aloft

  will prevent moisture into southwest Kansas



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Temperatures this afternoon rebounded nicely off the morning

lows, with temperatures fairly close to the upper bound of all

the NBM guidance (above 90th percentile). This is fairly typical

in prolonged dry periods with downslope conditions. Given this,

we have gone with substantial 75th to 90th percentile for

temperatures on Wednesday with winds out of the west-southwest.

Warmest area will be in the far southwest where downslope is

maximized off the Black Mesa region. There continues to be a

fairly high-zonal index in the hemispheric pattern, preventing

low level moisture from reaching as far west as southwestern

Kansas, thus the dry forecast continues. There are some signals

of a larger scale pattern change shifting toward mean troughing

across the western third of the CONUS beyond Day 7, but we need

more model runs to gain any appreciable confidence in a pattern

change supporting increased precipitation chances for our

southwest Kansas region.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1034 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



VFR conditions will prevail with some high clouds early this

morning and again this afternoon. Winds will generally be light

and curl from the northwest this morning to southwest by this

afternoon. Winds then become light and variable this evening

into the overnight period. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Umscheid

AVIATION...Hovorka_42