036 

FXUS63 KDDC 302312

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

512 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures to continue through the week



- No precipitation in the forecast as northwesterly flow aloft

  will prevent moisture into southwest Kansas



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Temperatures this afternoon rebounded nicely off the morning

lows, with temperatures fairly close to the upper bound of all

the NBM guidance (above 90th percentile). This is fairly typical

in prolonged dry periods with downslope conditions. Given this,

we have gone with substantial 75th to 90th percentile for

temperatures on Wednesday with winds out of the west-southwest.

Warmest area will be in the far southwest where downslope is

maximized off the Black Mesa region. There continues to be a

fairly high-zonal index in the hemispheric pattern, preventing

low level moisture from reaching as far west as southwestern

Kansas, thus the dry forecast continues. There are some signals

of a larger scale pattern change shifting toward mean troughing

across the western third of the CONUS beyond Day 7, but we need

more model runs to gain any appreciable confidence in a pattern

change supporting increased precipitation chances for our

southwest Kansas region.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 508 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Northwest winds will be at less than 10 knots overnight. These

winds will gradually shift to the west southwest early Wednesday

morning as a weak surface boundary moves east across western 

Kansas and westerly downslope flow improves. Wind speeds will

increase to near 15 knots by 18z with a few higher gusts

possible Wednesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected over

the next 24 hours based on short term models/BUFR soundings. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Umscheid

AVIATION...Burgert