058 

FXUS63 KDDC 302157

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

357 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures to continue through the week



- No precipitation in the forecast as northwesterly flow aloft

  will prevent moisture into southwest Kansas



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Temperatures this afternoon rebounded nicely off the morning

lows, with temperatures fairly close to the upper bound of all

the NBM guidance (above 90th percentile). This is fairly typical

in prolonged dry periods with downslope conditions. Given this,

we have gone with substantial 75th to 90th percentile for

temperatures on Wednesday with winds out of the west-southwest.

Warmest area will be in the far southwest where downslope is

maximized off the Black Mesa region. There continues to be a

fairly high-zonal index in the hemispheric pattern, prevening

low level moisture from reaching as far west as southwestern

Kansas, thus the dry forecast continues. There are some signals

of a larger scale pattern change shifting toward mean troughing

across the western third of the CONUS beyond Day 7, but we need

more model runs to gain any appreciable confidence in a pattern

change supporting increased precipitation chances for our

southwest Kansas region.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Good aviation weather will continue through this TAF period as

western Kansas will remain in a downslope west-northwesterly

pattern. No major wind shift in direction and speed is expected

through late morning Wednesday, and the dry lower atmosphere

along with large scale subsidence will result in widespread VFR

flight category.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Umscheid

AVIATION...Umscheid