743 FXUS61 KCTP 282314 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 614 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Little change in the coating to ~1 inch snowfall amounts expected for late tonight/early Sunday across mainly the higher terrain across the northern half of PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026. 2) Light rain and snow tonight/Sunday morning. 3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026 Another mostly sunny and mild afternoon today to close out the month of feb, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to range from the mid/upper 40s across the NW Mtns to low 60s throughout the central and southern valleys of PA. Moisture-starved cold front is pushing into the Mid Susq Valley and Scent PA as of 19Z, and deeper/colder air is lagging this sfc boundary by several hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Light rain and snow tonight/Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure (linked to a period of meso-B scale UVVEL beneath the right entrance region of an upper level jet max) is expected to develop tonight along a stalled frontal boundary to our south. These weather features will combine to bring light precipitation to Central PA later tonight into Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will largely be confined to areas north of I-80 (and focused at elevations AOA 1500 ft MSL), where anywhere from a coating to 1.5 inches is likely. Model soundings suggest that areas farther to the south may struggle to see saturation reach into the dendritic growth zone (that will be located around the top of the cloudy layer - near and above 10 KFT AGL), potentially leading to light rain or some light sleet showers/freezing drizzle being the predominant weather types. A light glaze of ice appears possible for areas south of I-80 and north of the turnpike, though the very mild ground temps this afternoon doesn't provide a good setup for that. KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over. Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly and dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will give way to lower conditions later tonight into early Sunday afternoon, as a strong cold front moves southeast across central PA. Some patchy rain and snow expected, but amts will be limited. Most likely location for low conditions will be BFD. Conditions will improve later Sunday, as a large dry high pressure system builds into the area, and remain across the area on Monday. A warm front lifting northeast on Tuesday will bring more adverse conditions at times after Monday. Outlook... Mon...VFR likely. Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain. Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Martin