919 FXUS61 KCTP 280618 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 118 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Reduced snowfall forecast early Sunday for the northern tier * Wintry mix focus shifting to Tuesday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026 2) Quick shot of light precip early Saturday and Sunday 3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026 Mild afternoon in progress for late February. Expect an even warmer end to the month/meteorological winter on Saturday with some sites touching 60F east of the mtns along the MD line. Guidance may not be bullish enough on how warm it could get. Clear skies early tonight could foster radiational fog/zf in the central and eastern valleys early Saturday morning. Persistence from last night and hires model signal would favor the LSV. KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick shots of light precip early Saturday and Sunday morning Moisture-starved cold front could bring a brief period of light rain to the NW mtns early Saturday morning. A second and more potent cold front/upper level shortwave will bring another shot of light snow/rain across the northern tier early Sunday morning. Snow amounts were cut in half in the latest cycle with max amounts around 1 inch or so near/along the US-6 corridor with a coating to <1" as far south as I-80. KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over. Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly an dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There could (50%) be a brief period of light rain with MVFR cigs at KBFD between 09-13Z as a sfc cold front tracks eastward from the Lower Great Lakes. Patchy fog may develop again tonight, with the highest likelihood in the central ridge and valley region (AOO to UNV) and southeast PA (MDT and LNS). Still not enough confidence to prevail any restrictions, but may need to reduce cigs/vis if confidence increases. LLWS still mentioned at BFD and JST in the warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front. Have dropped those mentions after 12/13Z. Did not mention LLWS at KIPT for the time being since the gusty srly wind is currently making it over the ridge and mixing down to the sfc. If (40%) the wind decouples, we'll start to mention it - but it should only be a concern until 14Z at the latest when the wind shift/cold front comes along there. The rest of the day will be a great day to fly with a light, veering wind for most locations. BFD may hold onto an MVFR cig until mid-day, but no IFR cigs in store. The next surge of moisture comes later Sat night as a low pressure area forms just to our south. It could (30-50%) produce IFR cigs later Sat night. We've started to hint at some lower clouds moving in for the tail end of this 06Z package. The first place that might have some precip would be BFD just before midnight local (010500Z), and if it gets briefly heavy, it could (40%) become IFR, but not (10%) LIFR. Light snow accums are expected N of I-80, and the chilly lower cloud deck elsewhere may also lead to some de-icing being necessary. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions possible in rain/snow north & fog southeast early. Mon...VFR likely. Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain. Wed...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Dangelo/Banghoff