086 FXUS61 KCLE 292344 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 744 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Parts of Northwestern and Northern Ohio have been upgraded into an Extreme Heat Warning beginning tomorrow. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include Northwestern Pennsylvania. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week as high pressure builds in to the southeast. 2) Precipitation chances return to the region on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will continue to move north across the region this evening into the early overnight hours. High pressure builds in southeast of the area early tomorrow and will persist through much of the week. As a result, there will be west to southwesterly flow across the region that will bring in warm moist air with temperatures and dew points climbing as a result. High temperatures will rise up into the upper 80s to low 90s this evening then into the mid to upper 90s through Thursday. With dew points climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat indices will be in climb over 100 degrees for all of the region. Northwest and Northern Ohio will climb above 105 starting tomorrow and have been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning. Overnight lows will be mild throughout the week will lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little relief to the heat related impacts. The upper level ridge begins to break down towards the end of the week. Temperatures are still expected to be above average with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Heat related headlines may need to be extended across much of Ohio. Though, depending on how the precipitation unfolds late this week will determine how warm some areas get. KEY MESSAGE 2... As the upper level ridge breaks down and the surface high pressure weakens, precipitation chances will return to the region beginning on Friday. Global models show a shortwave across fairly zonal flow moving through the region on Friday, though there has been quite a bit of variance in the models. Will need to continue to monitor this time frame to see how convection will impact our region Friday night into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Mainly VFR. Low potential for patchy fog/mist early Tuesday morning between 10-12z, but odds of impacting any particular TAF site are low. A surge of mid-level moisture may contribute to a period of SCT-BKN clouds around 3500-4500 feet from west to east late tonight through midday Tuesday, which is included in most of the TAFs...especially farther east. Light and variable winds tonight with land breeze development flipping CLE and ERI offshore overnight. Winds will generally be southwest at 7-15kt with a few gusts over 20kt on Tuesday. Outlook...VFR through most of Thursday. Low risk for an isolated shower or storm Thursday afternoon. Greater potential for scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday afternoons. && .MARINE... Generally light wind conditions of 15 knots or less expected this week. Onshore flow today will shift to southwesterly on Tuesday. Occasional lake breezes are possible between Cleveland and Erie. Otherwise, chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast beginning Thursday night and continue through the Holiday weekend. Showers and thunderstorms could lead to erratic wind and wave conditions at times. && .CLIMATE... Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday. Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations: Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021) 06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930) 07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018) 07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963) 07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-006-017. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006>011-017>019. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ012>014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...10