538 FXUS61 KCLE 291807 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 207 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes as today marks the beginning of the heat building into our CWA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid this week under a strong upper level ridge. 2) Chances for showers and storms return Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... There are no large scale changes to the forecast for this week and the impending heat wave that will begin building into the western zones today. Upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley for the middle of the week as has been a consistent feature in the forecast models for several days now. NAM is now giving 850mb temperatures in the 25-26C range for Wednesday which reaffirms the upper 90s in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday while dewpoints this week will be anywhere from the mid 60s to lower 70s. From a milestone standpoint, a big question will be if any of the official climate sites will hit the 100F mark at any point this week, again, with the best chances being Wednesday and Thursday. See the climate section below for record high temperatures for these climate sites as we go into this heat wave. Heat Advisory in place for much of the CWA. Temperatures look to retreat slightly Friday, and then further into the weekend, although still above normal through next Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper ridge breaks down Friday with the flow aloft turning either more zonal or slight southwesterly. This will allow a return of upper level waves into the region, and chances for convection will be on the rise. As mentioned during the forecast process last night, will need to see how details unfold with this pattern as to whether or not any organized systems encounter the CWA. But during peak daytime heating hours for Friday into the weekend, POPs in the 40 percent range will not be unreasonable going forward. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Can not rule out an hour or two of MVFR visibilities between 10-12Z Tues morning but confidence is not very high. Otherwise scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon will tend to clear tonight. Expecting to see clouds increase in the 2500-4500 range between 14-18Z tomorrow and may be broken for an hour or two before scattering out. We will also have occasional high clouds moving overhead. Winds will be out of the south to southwest today except near Lake Erie where lake breezes out of the north are already occurring at ERI and will reach CLE by 19Z. Land breezes will prevail tonight out of the south/southeast with southwesterly winds returning on Tuesday. Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Generally light wind conditions of 15 knots or less expected this week. Onshore flow today will shift to southwesterly on Tuesday. Occasional lake breezes are possible between Cleveland and Erie. Otherwise, chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast beginning Thursday night and continue through the Holiday weekend. Showers and thunderstorms could lead to erratic wind and wave conditions at times. && .CLIMATE... Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday. Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations: Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021) 06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930) 07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018) 07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963) 07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-006-017. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006>011-017>019. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ012>014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...10 MARINE...10