839 FXUS61 KCLE 282303 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 603 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is higher confidence in a light coating of snow in NE OH and NW PA tonight. Otherwise, there are no major changes in the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow is expected tonight with very limited impacts. 2) Warmer conditions with multiple periods of rain are expected Tuesday through next weekend. There could be increasing potential for nuisance flooding and increasing flow in area rivers and creeks. && .DISCUSSION... 1) A cold front is making its way through the forecast area this afternoon and temperatures will flat-line with peak heating this afternoon but should drop off significantly tonight. Meanwhile, there is some upper level support for some snow with snow reaching the ground in Wisconsin/Illinois and moving over Lake Michigan. This will spread east tonight and likely across much of the area. Most folks should at least see some flakes tonight. However, any meaningful coating would probably be in NE OH and NW PA with generally an inch or less. There shouldn't be too much impact with the snow given the timing and the warmer antecedent ground conditions from sunshine today and recent temperatures in the 40s and 50s. 2) Starting on Tuesday, a warm front will enter the region and bring a notable pattern change to the region. For starters, this front will allow for temperatures to surge back into the 50s on Tuesday with temperatures gradually warming into the 60s and even 70s by the end of the week, as strong warm sector builds over the region. More importantly though, this front will begin a wet pattern for the forecast area with multiple round of rain expected through the end of the week. All in all, the forecast area is looking at about 1 to 2 inches of rain through the week with periodic rain expected. Therefore, the flood risk is not very high at this point as there will be breaks that will allow for water to drain. In addition, some of the forecast area remains in a drought (particularly in NW OH) and could use some water to help restore soil moisture and low water levels on the rivers. Will need to monitor to see if there is a period that could overperform and allow for some nuisance flooding issues, especially in the urban areas or where soil moisture is higher with the recent melted snowpack. There could be some thunder chances on Wednesday with a more potent shortwave moving through the region, but the thermodynamics appear poor for anything more than thunder right now as this system will move through the area late on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The main aviation concern for potential weather impacts will be overnight with areas of light snow moving in. All TAF locations are starting out with VFR conditions and ceilings at of early Saturday evening. We expected ceilings to lower to MVFR to lower MVFR for most locations late this evening through Sunday morning. The best potential for IFR conditions will be at ERI with 1sm to 2sm snow and ceilings between 700 and 1500 feet. We will have to watch for some potential for IFR at CLE and YNG. The rest of the area will see 3sm to 5sm light snow and ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet later tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions will improve later Sunday morning to VFR ceilings through Sunday afternoon. Winds will gradually become north-northeast 8-12 knots this evening through tonight and continue into Sunday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow again Sunday night into Monday, mainly along and south of US-30. Periods of non- VFR conditions are possible throughout next week as an active pattern becomes established. && .MARINE... Stronger N flow developing behind a cold front the rest of the afternoon will turn NE at 10-20 knots tonight, diminishing to 5-10 knots by late Sunday. Winds then turn E at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday as high pressure strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes before becoming SW and increasing to 10-15 knots Tuesday as a warm front lifts to near Lake Erie. Winds will then fluctuate between N and S through Thursday as the front wavers over the southern Great Lakes in response to a series of low pressure systems tracking along it. The frequent wind shifts through next week and return to mild temperatures after the Sunday and Monday cold will continue to cause the remaining ice to shift around and decay. This could pose some hazards to shipping lanes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sefcovic AVIATION...77 MARINE...Garuckas