520 FXUS61 KCLE 280658 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 158 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Weather has trended warmer and wetter starting Tuesday through next weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow is likely tonight, though road impacts will be limited. 2) Wet and warm conditions are expected Tuesday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... 1) A weak shortwave moving through, along with forcing from the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet, will be the focus for precipitation development tonight. Cold air advection with northerly flow should keep precipitation type mostly snow, though a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain could be briefly possibly for our far southern counties in central Ohio (Knox-Holmes area). The 00Z NAM is the most aggressive with mixed precipitation there, as it produces a more developed low- level low and subsequent warm nose aloft. With that said, antecedent road/ground temperatures will probably be warm enough to limit impacts. Elsewhere, snow amounts are unlikely to amount to much, with less than an inch. 2) An upper-level ridge moves from the southwest CONUS towards the eastern CONUS by Tuesday, where it will become established through the rest of the week and into next weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough follows, moving lee of the Rockies by Tuesday. In response, return flow of gulf air will bring warm, moist conditions northward, setting up a strong theta-e gradient with a warm front over us and favorable conditions for a period of moderate to possibly heavy rain (at times). Rain showers may come as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that precipitation initially falls as freezing rain before temperatures warm up into the 40s. The greatest QPF signal right now is for Tuesday and Tuesday night where the NBM has a 50-75 of QPF > 1". The 90th percentile, which can be considered a reasonable worse case scenario, is around 1.75". Antecedent conditions are fairly dry as river flow is relatively low, and parts of Northwest Ohio (including Lucas, Wood, and parts of Hancock and Ottawa) are actually still under a D3 Extreme Drought. So while this is a notable QPF signal, flooding appears unlikely. Broad southwest flow will persist through the rest of the week, resulting in continued warming temperatures and several periods of rain showers. It's likely we see multiple days of highs in to 60s from Thursday through Saturday. With repeated rainfall, higher soil moisture could provide more favorable antecedent conditions for flooding by late week, but the details are a little fuzzy at this point. CSU ML shows this potential, with a >5% chance of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday (consistent with an isolated flooding threat). && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The main aviation weather concern for this 06z TAF update will be for some non-convective low level wind shear until about 09z or 10z overnight. Mainly VFR conditions and ceilings are expected for this TAF period through Saturday afternoon and early evening. MVFR ceilings and visibility will move in late Saturday evening towards the end of the TAF period with areas of light snow. Winds will be from the south- southwest 11-15 knots across the area with gusts of 20-25 knots possible overnight. As a cold front moves closer to the area later tonight, a strong LLJ of 40-50 knots will develop ahead of this front. Have included a period of LLWS at all terminals due to the magnitude of the jet until 09-10Z Saturday morning. As the cold front pushes east Saturday morning, winds will become northwesterly at 5-10 knots. By Saturday evening, winds will become north- northeasterly 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow Saturday night into early Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday, mainly along and south of US-30. Periods of non-VFR conditions are possible throughout next week as an active pattern becomes established. && .MARINE... With mostly clear skies today, there was an excellent view from satellite of the remaining ice across Lake Erie. Much of the central basin is now open with the western basin ice quickly diminishing. In the eastern basin, the vast majority of ice still exists, however it is important to note that significant ice cracks are occurring, especially near the lakeshore. As an active pattern continues through next week, multiple periods of gusty winds will continue to shift the ice and fracture it even more. The first system will occur tonight as a low pressure moving across the region pushes a cold front east across Lake Erie. Southwest winds this afternoon will increase to 15-20 knots before backing to westerly by Saturday morning. High pressure will nudge over the area Saturday night, shifting winds to become north-northwesterly at 10-15 knots. This high will remain dominant into Tuesday. It is worth noting that Small Craft Advisories remain suspended at this time, but waves within open waters may build to 2-4 feet at times. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...77 MARINE...04