473 FXUS61 KCLE 310825 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 325 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes today and will drag a cold front across the local area this evening into Thursday. Weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the west on Thursday and persist through the weekend. A weak low will track across the eastern Great Lakes early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active winter weather continues through the duration of the near term with winter weather headlines in effect across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Thursday and Thursday evening. Headlines remain unchanged with this forecast update. Two initial areas of snowfall to focus on in the immediate term the first being a weak clipper system tracking across the region. Areawide light snowfall between 1 and 2 inches is expected through this morning with this system. The weak clipper will allow for lingering lake effect snow showers to focus in on the lakeshore from Lake County OH east into northern Erie County PA early this morning and continue through much of the day today. Snowfall amounts along the lake shore through this afternoon range between 5 and 8 inches. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible this afternoon across northern Erie County PA where HREF guidance hints at snowfall rates of 1"/hr. Given the long- fetch single band along the lakeshore under westerly flow, there will be a sharp snow gradient with locations south of the main band receiving a significantly lower amount of snowfall. A stronger clipper and cold front will sink south across the region late this afternoon/early evening. Another glancing blow of 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected outside of the Snowbelt with this system this afternoon and evening. An additional 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected in the snowbelt. Highest amounts likely across the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania where a Lake Huron connection is expected to develop. Additionally, there continues to be a concern for snow squalls this afternoon and evening. The threat for squalls exists across the entire region though the highest chance will be across portions of Northern Ohio, Northeast Ohio, and Northwest Pennsylvania. Snow squalls can result in brief whiteouts and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches/hr at times this evening. Lake effect will gradually diminish across much of the Snowbelt through the day on Thursday as a narrow ridge of high pressure dries out low levels. Highs in the upper 20s today ahead of the cold front. Much cooler tonight behind the cold front with lows in the single digits to low 10s. Sub-zero wind chills will be likely across much of the region Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will remain cool in the upper teens to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Some lingering lake effect snowfall may continue across Northwest Pennsylvania through Friday as an upper trough digs across western NY. However, expect greatest snowfall accumulations to occur closer to the trough axis across western NY. Dry weather is expected outside of any lingering lake effect snow showers as high pressure remains overhead. Remaining chilly with lows each night in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday remain in the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Slight chance to chance PoPs return Sunday night through Tuesday downwind of Lake Erie as a weak area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Highs in the upper 20s on Sunday will warm into the mid 30s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ceilings across the region are largely between 1500 and 3500 ft with ceilings lowering from west to east across the area. Snow showers have moved in all across the airspace and are largely driving the visibility and flight categories across the terminals. Overnight, a more organized band of lake effect snow should develop over Lake Erie and push into KERI, allowing for more sustained IFR with periods of LIFR with moderate snow. During the afternoon hours, a reinforcing cold front will move through the region and bring another round of snow for the entire area and likely IFR conditions. There is potential that snow could end up being organized snow squalls with the potential for LIFR conditions with quarter mile or less visibility. There is higher confidence of LIFR snow bands at KCLE and KERI with the lake effect component, but additional mentions may be needed elsewhere as the snow squall threat continues to be realized. Winds will be westerly with gusts to 20-25 kts. These gusts could pick up to as high as 30 kts with the front on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front. Toward the end of the TAF period, snow should start to clear the larger area, just becoming focused in NE OH/NW PA with non-VFR visibility. MVFR ceilings should start clearing late in the period, as well, but may not fully exit until after 06z. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected across the region due to lake effect snow and clouds through Thursday night and then with low ceilings Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Conditions will continue to improve across Lake Erie through this afternoon. In the western basin, the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4AM with winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots and waves diminishing to around 2 feet. For the rest of the lake, the Small Craft Advisory remains valid and will be extended through 09Z Saturday morning when winds and waves will begin to diminish below criteria. Until then, winds will generally be out of the west and stay at 15 to 25 knots. There's a short time period starting this evening through midnight tonight where winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots across the central and western basin. As a result, waves will build back up around 7 to 9 feet before beginning to diminish Thursday morning. There is about a period tonight where in the western basin winds could reach Small Craft criteria, though confidence is low in that time period being long enough to warrant an issuance of an advisory. Afterwards, winds will begin to weaken through the remainder of the weak and waves will diminish as well across Lake Erie. High pressure will build into the region to start this weekend and quiet conditions are expected. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ010-020>023-031>033. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ012>014-089. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...23