393 FXUS61 KCLE 302034 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 334 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east through the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, extending a cold front across the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the area late Thursday and may persist through much of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the near term period will be periods of heavy lake effect snow through Wednesday night and the potential for snow squalls late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted from 1 PM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday for the secondary snowbelt, including adjacent Counties such as Wayne, Stark, and Mahoning. All other headlines remain unchanged with this update, though snowfall amounts have been increased, particularly near northern Ashtabula (OH) and Erie (PA) Counties where an additional 1.5 to 2 feet of snow is becoming more likely. Lake effect snow continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon as 850 mb temperatures remain cold (-15 to -16C) with primarily northwest flow aloft. The most potent lake effect snow band thus far is impacting portions of far eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties and could persist over the next several hours with surface convergence largely keeping the band in place (W to NW flow north of the band with W to SW flow to the south of the band). The expectation is for this band to gradually lift north across the snowbelt late tonight into Wednesday morning as a weak clipper sweeps through the area, shifting low-level flow towards the southwest. Outside of the snowbelt, generally a light snow of 1 to 3 inches is anticipated areawide into Wednesday morning. Attention then turns towards the potential for a long-fetch single band to develop along or near the lakeshore of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as 850 mb flow favors a westerly direction ahead of a stronger clipper system and cold front expected to arrive by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates within the band will likely reach 1 to 2 inches per hour, contributing to up to a foot of snow by around 1 PM Wednesday. There will be a sharp gradient, with locations just south of the main band expected to have significantly less snow accumulation. A stronger clipper system and cold front will then arrive across the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing an additional 6 to 12 inches of snow across the primarily snowbelt as northwest flow quickly shifts the single band onshore. Confidence is high for snowfall rates to reach 1 to 2 inches per hour, particularly across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the snowbelt, generally 2 to 5 inches is expected areawide, with the highest amounts located generally east of the I-71 corridor. In addition to snow amounts, the environment will be primed for snow squalls Wednesday afternoon and evening which could result in brief whiteouts and quickly- coated roadways. This threat is areawide, but is most likely across North and Northeast Ohio, and into Northwest Pennsylvania (see the WPC Key Messages graphics for a regional look at the snow squall potential for New Year's Eve). Temperatures will remain cold for the near term period with wind chills in the teens to single digits. Temperatures will be the coldest late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning behind the cold front, with wind chills near or slightly below zero. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lake effect snow will likely continue across the primary snowbelt Thursday morning into the early afternoon as 850 mb temperatures fall to around -20C with little to no boundary layer shear in place. A trough will swing east through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, though the current thinking is that any lake effect snow would appear to favor western NY given strong southwest surface flow. Cold temperatures will persist for the short term period with wind chills in the teens to single digits. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A quieter, albeit cold, weather pattern is favored to persist for the long term period as several areas of weak high pressure build across the region. Aloft, the region is expected to remain wedged between an upper-level trough to the northeast and a weakly-defined ridge to the west. Temperatures will warm up slightly into the low 30s, though will still remain below average for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow continues across the typical snowbelt area west of I-77 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this evening. Ceilings of 1500-3500 ft are expected, with variable visibilities in the 2-5 SM range, though could be briefly as low as 1/2SM at times. West wind of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 20-30 knots this afternoon will subside to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this evening. A weak clipper system will bring a period of light snow focused on the western half of the forecast area (along and west of I-77) with visibilities in the 1-2SM range for about 3-6 hours late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, lake effect snow will redevelop and intensify along the lakeshore late tonight with westerly flow. Moderate to heavy snow is likely to impact KERI, with visibilities persistently at or below 1 SM, and down to 1/4SM at times. As flow becomes west- northwest, should see lake effect snow impacting the rest of the forecast area with periodic visibilities at or below 2 SM. Westerly winds will be on the rise Wednesday afternoon, with gusts in the 25-30 knot range. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected across the region due to lake effect snow through Thursday night and then with low clouds Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Conditions have improved on Lake Erie, so the Gale Warning has been expired at 4 PM. West winds around 20-25 knots will continue through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory has replaced the Gale Warning in the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. The worst conditions are expected for about a 6 hour period Wednesday evening into Wednesday night following the passage of a cold front. This is when winds will become northwest and increase to 25-30 knots, especially in the central and eastern basin where waves may climb to 7-9 feet. The small craft advisory east of The Islands will then continue through 03Z Friday, though there is a chance it may need to be extended further into Friday (confidence wasn't high enough at this point. High pressure builds in over the weekend and conditions improve across Lake Erie with conditions at or below 10 kts & 2 ft. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ010-020>023-031>033. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ012>014-089. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ145>147. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ148-149-168- 169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders