665 FXUS61 KCAR 282330 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 730 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAFS Refined convection for this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds and hail. 2) A chance of showers and storms nearly every afternoon from Tuesday through Friday. However, all-day rainfalls are not expected. 3) Very warm temperatures Monday through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds and hail. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Latest radar trends and CAMS show that storms are diminishing in intensity and coverage with loss of solar heating. With that said, could see showers last into the evening hours, with possibly some residual thunder as well across the Saint John Valley and southern portions of the Central Highlands and the Bangor Region. Still could see small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the strongest convection, however confidence in this occurring is too low to reflect in the forecast. The other issue for later tonight/early Monday morning is the potential for locally dense fog, with the best chance in those areas that received rainfall this afternoon and evening. Will continue to monitor as the evening progresses. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers and storms nearly every afternoon from Tuesday through Friday. However, all-day rainfalls are not expected. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Monday looks quieter for convection. However, as the airmass moistens from Tuesday on, the chance of afternoon showers/storms increases. Also, the center of the upper level ridge axis will remain to our west and we will be under fairly unstable NW flow aloft, and with very warm temperatures and a muggy airmass, this is a very good pattern for severe weather at some point Tuesday to Friday. Hard to tell which day will have the best chance for severe storms, but this is definitely a pattern to watch for. The ridge will be in a nearly perfect position to lead to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to ride the ridge into Maine during the overnight hours. Will need to monitor the trends for this potential. As we approach the July 4th holiday a lot of outdoor activities may be impacted by weather. KEY MESSAGE 3...Very warm temperatures Monday through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... In addition to the afternoon showers and storms, the heat is another thing to watch out for. There is still some uncertainty just how warm it will get, but at the least we will be looking at is low to mid 80s for highs and upper 50s to mid 60s for lows. The greatest risk for the warmest temperatures is Wednesday through Friday, as on Monday and Tuesday the heat will still be building. Some locations will be getting up to around 90 degrees Wednesday to Friday. In addition, it will be quite muggy and if we get air temperatures up close to 90, heat indices will likely begin to reach heat advisory criteria which is 95. Right now, for each day Wednesday through Friday, the chance of reaching heat advisory criteria (95 heat index) is 25-50 percent, highest in the area from Penobscot Bay Region to Bangor to Dover-Foxcroft, at some point between Wednesday and Friday. As of now, Thursday seems to have the highest heat index of the three days. In addition, nighttime low temperatures will be quite mild and those without air conditioning will really start feeling the effects later in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through the TAF period with two possible exceptions: 1) A very brief period of MVFR early this evening at KFVE and KBGR in any SHRA/TSRA and 2) the possibility for a period of IFR or lower in any fog overnight. For now the best chance at this happening is at KFVE and KBGR with the most recent rainfall. The least confidence in this happening is at KHUL, which has been dry and is the least likely to see any convection at all the remainder of this evening. Have left fog out of KHUL as a result. Light and variable winds through the TAF period, except for a late afternoon/early sea breeze at KBHB and KBGR. Monday night-Friday: VFR, except for a chance of MVFR or lower in any fog late at night/early in the morning and a brief chance for MVFR in any stronger convection in the afternoon/early evening. && .MARINE... Expecting winds less than 15 kt and seas 3 ft or less over all waters through Friday. Fog will reduce visibility less than 1nm at times through midweek on all the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/JS/JMM AVIATION...PM/JS/JMM