839 FXUS61 KCAR 301921 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 221 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts to the north today through Wednesday. Low pressure develops along the coast Wednesday night, then strengthens as it moves east into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Additional weak disturbances rotate through the area into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... 1) Blowing snow leading to dangerous travel over the north this evening 2) Wind chills dropping into the lower negative 20s north and negative single digits over Downeast tonight 3) Significant snows for Downeast late on New Year/s Eve Key Message 1... West winds remain gusty overnight as sfc low deepens to the north of the Gaspe Peninsula. Winds tapping into 30-35kts at H8 have easily mixed 30kts down to the surface and will likely continue through at least midnight. This will lead to blowing snow downwind of open areas. This will also result in drifting snow over north-south roadways. Upr level disturbance has brought snow showers to nrn and eastern zones as it heads east into Canada. Most of the blowing snow will be patchy in nature since there will be little falling tonight but cannot rule out areas of blowing snow, leading to visibility restrictions. Key Message 2... Combining with the strong west winds expected will be temperatures falling through the overnight. Cold air advection courtesy of Canada will lead to lows dropping below zero, even under cloudy skies and a well-mixed boundary layer. Wind chills will be able to drop toward minus 20 and lower across the north overnight and drop into the negative single digits for Downeast. Key Message 3... A strong s/wv will be digging into the Great Lakes tonight and head into the northeastern U.S. late Wednesday night. This will help to spin up/ strengthen sfc low downwind of the Great lakes and over ern NY State after midnight Wednesday night. AS it heads east along a developing coastal front it will bring snow along the Downeast coast, possibly significant in the first half of the short term period. Guidance and soundings are showing very ample lift in the dendrite zone and looks to produce a quick 2-3 inches of snow Wednesday night. More on this storm in the next section. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages... 1) Moderate to locally heavy snow accumulation Downeast possible early Thursday 2) Bitterly cold beginning Thursday night Key Message 1... Storm that began Wednesday night persists into Thursday morning. This will be a very tricky storm as it will involve a rapidly intensifying low pressure system near or just offshore our coast. Snow amounts that occur over Downeast will be highly sensitive to the exact track, which has trended more favorable in recent runs with a more rapidly intensifying surface low pressure further NW and closer to Downeast. Another uncertainty factor is there will likely be a convective element to the snow with high spatial variability where the heavier convection sets up. This storm is just beginning to get into the timerange that CAMs cover, but have a feeling the CAMs will be hitting things hard. For example, RRFS goes out that far and is going as much as around a foot for Coastal Washington County. We are going for around 6 inches for Coastal Washington and 3-6 inches for coastal Hancock County, tapering off to an inch or two as far NW and Bangor and Houlton and little if any for NW Maine. This is very much subject to change, and we will attempt to message this storm probabilistically. Wasn't quite confident enough to go for a winter storm watch for coastal Downeast, but next shift may need to think about this unless models trend SE and weaker. Temperatures should be cold enough for all areas to see snow, though temperatures could approach freezing for immediate coastal Washington. The snow will be fairly low density (fluffy), with snow ratios 15-18:1. A bit of wind on the back side of the system late Thursday after the snow ends which may bring blowing snow Downeast, but didn't have enough confidence to put blowing snow in the forecast. Key Message 2... Bitterly cold air moves in Thursday night and Friday. Lows Thursday night 0-5F Downeast and 5 below to 10 below in the north. Wind chills generally 10 to 20 below. Not warming up much Friday, with highs around 5F in the north and 15-20F Downeast. A bit of a west breeze Friday, but not too bad. High confidence in the bitter cold temperatures behind the Wednesday night/Thursday morning storm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages... 1) Remaining bitterly cold through the weekend 2) Next potential weather system Monday/Tuesday Key Message 1... High confidence in bitter cold persisting Friday night through the weekend, with temperatures running about 15 to 20 degrees below average. Still a bit of uncertainty in exact temperatures, but while cold, these temperatures shouldn't break daily cold records. Looking for lows in the range of 25 below to 5 below, coolest in the north, and look for highs 0 to 10 above in the north, and 10 to 20 above Downeast. Generally dry for the weekend, though can't rule out a few light daytime snow showers. Key Message 2... A bit of moderation in temperatures toward early in the week with a potential weather system Monday/Tuesday. However, models are all over the place, and only went with chance of snow for this period. While we can't rule out temperatures rebounding enough for rain on the coast, odds favor any precipitation that does fall being snow even for the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Downeast terminals remain VFR next 24 hours before diminishing toward MVFR Wednesday evening, possibly with IFR/LIFR in snow at BHB toward the end of the TAF period. Aroostook terminals will see MVFR restrictions this evening before a gradual improvement to low VFR. HUL looks to improve later this afternoon with northern terminals varying between high MVFR/Low VFR during the overnight hours. Cannot rule out brief IFR vsbys in snow and/or BLSN this afternoon for PQI, CAR and FVE but this will be the exception. Northern sites may diminish to MVFR late Wednesday night, depending on storm track over Downeast. West winds will remain gusty overnight to between 20-25kts with gusts dropping over Downeast terminals Wednesday morning. SHORT TERM: Thursday...Significant uncertainty based on storm track, but generally looking at VFR/MVFR, except possibly IFR from BHB east. NW wind increasing to around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. NW wind 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Generally W winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale force winds continue overnight with the intracoastal dropping to small craft level winds after 06z, while outer waters maintain gale force gusts into Wednesday morning. Small craft conditions will continue throughout the day from southwest winds. Seas remain aoa 5ft before dropping slightly late Wednesday night and, depending on track of coastal storm, increasing above SCA levels through the end of the period. Moderate freezing spray develops over the intracoastal zone this evening into Wednesday morning thus a Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect. SHORT TERM: NW gales likely Thursday night with light to potentially moderate freezing spray. Then generally W/NW small craft winds through the weekend, though can't rule out gales, especially Saturday night. Seas 2 to 5 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...21 Short Term...TF Long Term...TF Aviation...21/TF Marine...21/TF