793 FXUS61 KCAR 300723 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 223 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts to the north today through Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure develops along the coast Wednesday night into Thursday and lifts into the Canadian Maritimes through Friday. Additional weak disturbances rotate through the state into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message 1: Refreezing of slush/rain, as well as lingering snow across the north will impact travel for the commute this morning. Key Message 2: Increasing wind gusts area wide may lead to patchy blowing snow and potential for a couple power outages across northern areas. Key Message 3: Cold wind chills as low as the lower negative 20s across the north and negative teens across the southern half of the forecast area are expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Discussion: Through Today... 6z surface analysis shows an occluded front across eastern areas with the triple point low strengthening below 980mb across southern New Brunswick. Strong PVA and low level convergence to the west of the low has led to a burst of light to moderate snow across much of the area, with the heaviest accumulating snow across Aroostook County this morning. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 7AM for northern Aroostook County. Bands of snow will continue across this area through the morning, gradually retreating to mainly the northern and western Maine borders during the day by around 12z/7AM this morning. Winds increase out of the west tonight as colder air sweeps into the area. Lingering ice and snow on trees may lead to a few power outages from the wind, despite gusts only expected to peak around 35 to 40 mph. In areas of northern Maine with fresh snow, some patchy drifting and blowing snow is likely as well over open areas. Colder air will also lead to refreezing of any standing water for the rest of the area that saw rain yesterday. Temperatures will decrease during the day, falling from the 20s in the morning to the lower teens by late afternoon at most locations. Tonight to New Years Eve... Flurries and snow showers over the northern and western Maine border will finally diminish tonight as a broad upper level disturbance lifts northward. Winds turn WSW to SW and decrease slightly, but likely not enough to lead to decoupling, especially with mostly cloudy skies across the north. Despite this, the air mass will still be cold enough to yield low temperatures just below zero across the north and in the single digits for southern areas to the coast. Wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s below zero across the north, and generally 5 to 15 below across the south. Some very modest warm advection is expected for Wednesday/New Years Eve, which should allow temperatures to rebound into the 20s Downeast and teens to upper single digits across the north. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... *Shortwave brings chance of few inches Downeast on Thursday *Cold temperatures New Years Day and Night Key Message 1... Aforementioned low pressure system moves north towards central Canada and the Hudson Bay, before parking there through the rest of the week. Stemming from this longwave trough will be multiple shortwave disturbances, which keep skies relatively cloudy and could result in some snow Wednesday night into Thursday, as disturbances swing through the Downeast region. One such disturbance centers over Maine Thursday morning, and with plenty of cold air funneling in from arctic air masses, bringing a decent chance for some accumulating snowfall, primarily in the interior and coastal Downeast region. The specific track of this disturbance is still uncertain, which would impact snow total accumulation. Overall, however – highest snowfall amounts are expected along the Downeast region, with a potential for around 3-4 inches possible from Wednesday night through Thursday. Inland Downeast and Bangor region would see closer to 1-2 inches of snowfall. Central and Northern Maine will get lighter amounts, roughly 0.5 - 1 inch. Expecting the snow to be light and fluffy. Key Message 2... As the broad longwave trough parks over Canada through most of the week, cold arctic air is funneled into New England region, resulting in below average daytime highs and cold overnight lows. Wednesday night, lows at or around 0 degrees in the north, mid-teens in interior Downeast, and low 20s along the Downeast coast. Daytime highs on Thursday are forecast to only reach in the to low-to-mid teens in the north, and upper-teens to low-20s for Central and interior Downeast regions. Mid-to-upper 20s for the coast. Thursday night will be especially cold as winds ramp up slightly, with the north dipping 10-15 below, and Downeast at or around 0 degrees. Wind chills in the north could reach 20 below overnight, and 10 below Downeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages... *Cold temperatures through the weekend *Potential for system late next week Key Messages 1... Cold temperatures linger Friday through the weekend, as low pressure to the north parks in central Canada, continuing to push cold air masses towards Maine. Daytime highs generally staying in the single digits to low teens in the north, and the teens to 20s Downeast. Overnight lows around 10 below in the north, and generally in the single digits Downeast. Wind chills in the negative 20 to 30 range is possible late this weekend. Key Message 2... Next chance for precipitation could be early next week, as a primarily low in Canada potentially merges with another low, bringing a chance for another shortwave to swing through eastern Maine. The ECMWF and GFS have begun to come into agreement that a shortwave could go over Maine, but the track and timing of the system is. The GFS has a shortwave moving through early next week, with high pressure building in behind it my mid-week. The ECMWF, however, has the shortwave move over early next week, but then merge with the parent low back in Canada, bringing that low down in to Maine mid-week. Overall, the ECMWF now has a snowier solution. The overall trend to note here is that models are coming into agreement that a shortwave could stem off of the parent low in Canada, but the behavior of the low and its track is still uncertain at this time. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Today: IFR/MVFR at Aroostook County terminals early with -SN, improving to all MVFR ceilings and visibility by 12z. DRSN or brief periods of BLSN are possible today. Winds shifting W at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 30 kts. IFR at BHB and along the coast, as well as MVFR for BGR and MLT will become VFR after 12z. Winds W 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Tonight to Wednesday: MVFR at northern Aroostook County terminals through Wednesday morning, becoming VFR Wednesday afternoon. VFR at other terminals. WSW to SW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night - Thursday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A slight chance of snow showers in the north, a chance for snow at BGR and BHB. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming W/NW Thursday. Gusts up to 20 kt at southern terminals possible in evening. Thursday night - Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of light snow at KBHB. Light W/NW winds at 5-10kts, becoming SW Friday evening. Friday night – Saturday...Generally VFR. W/SW winds 5-10kt, becoming W/NW during the day Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: After a brief lull early this morning, winds will ramp back up to gale force and continue through tonight. Winds decrease below gale force to advisory levels first over the intracoastal waters later tonight, then over all waters Wednesday. Seas will build to 8 to 13 feet over the outer waters today and decrease below 10 feet Wednesday. Light freezing spray develops today through Wednesday morning. There is a chance of moderate freezing spray tonight for areas near the coast, but confidence is not sufficient for a freezing spray advisory at this time. SHORT TERM: Small Craft Criteria level winds and seas begin to fall below criteria Wednesday night. Winds begin to rise to Small Craft criteria again Thursday afternoon/evening in to Friday. Chance for snow Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds from the W/SW on Wednesday night, shifting to the NW by Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ001- 002. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...MWS Short Term...ASB Long Term...ASB Aviation...MWS/ASB Marine...MWS/ASB